Potential effects of autonomous vehicles on transport mode choice and sedentary behaviour in an Australian context – a modelling study
Background: Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are hailed as having the potential to improve road safety. However, they may also encourage engagement in more sedentary transport. This modeling paper aims to explore how the uptake of AVs may lead to increased sedentary behaviour and to explore potential polic...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590198225002192 |
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| Summary: | Background: Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are hailed as having the potential to improve road safety. However, they may also encourage engagement in more sedentary transport. This modeling paper aims to explore how the uptake of AVs may lead to increased sedentary behaviour and to explore potential policy interventions. Methods: An Agent-Based Model was developed using survey responses and domain expertise to simulate humans’ transport mode choices. 250 ‘human’ agents were distributed into an imagined future environment containing AVs. Agents’ decision-making was based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour. Effects on mode choice and sedentary behaviour associated with transport modal choice were observed. Six policy scenarios related to the introduction of AVs were then explored, including policies designed to both incentivise and disincentivise AV use. Results: Baseline results showed rapid adoption of autonomous transport mode choice across both private AVs and autonomous ‘ride hail’ options, driven by decreasing costs of AVs and increasing acceptance of AV technology over time. Changes in agents’ transport behaviours coincided with a decrease in active transport trips and increase in sedentary transport behaviour. Additional fees for ride-hail AV trips disincentivised their use. Up-front financial discounts for the purchase of AVs increased adoption more than post-purchase rebates. Conclusion: Increases in autonomous transport are expected to be accompanied by greater sedentary transport behaviour. Financial incentives to restrict AV adoption may be effective in mitigating adverse consequences. The model framework provides a flexible platform upon which to test a variety of future policy transport and technology adoption scenarios. |
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| ISSN: | 2590-1982 |