A Retrospective Study of the Effects of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on Influenza in Canada
<b>Background/Objectives</b>: COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on endemic respiratory illnesses. Through behavioral changes in populations and government policy, mainly through non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), Canada saw historic lows in the number of influenza A cases...
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Infectious Disease Reports |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2036-7449/17/3/59 |
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| Summary: | <b>Background/Objectives</b>: COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on endemic respiratory illnesses. Through behavioral changes in populations and government policy, mainly through non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), Canada saw historic lows in the number of influenza A cases from 2020 through 2022. In this study, we use historical influenza A data for Canada and three provincial jurisdictions within Canada—Ontario, Quebec, and Alberta—to quantify the effects of these NPIs on influenza A. <b>Methods</b>: We aim to see which base parameters and derived parameters of an SIR model are most affected by NPIs. We fit a simple SIR model to historical influenza data to get average paramters for seasonal influenza. We then compare these parameters to those predicted by fitting influenza cases during the COVID-19 pandemic. <b>Results</b>: We find substantial differences in the effective population size and basic reproduction number during the COVID-19 pandemic. We also see the effects of fatigue and relaxation of NPIs when comparing the years 2020, 2021, and 2022. <b>Conclusions</b>: We find that the effective population size is the main driver of change to disease spread and discuss how these retrospective estimates can be used for future forecasting. |
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| ISSN: | 2036-7449 |