Meteorological conditions and avalanche danger of winters in the Caucasus at the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century based on the results of CMIP6 models
The paper considers a forecast of avalanche danger in the Caucasus at the end of the 21st century based on the climatic avalanche indicator criterion developed at Moscow State University, using the results of the CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESM). The quality of models’ estimates of modern winter clim...
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| Language: | Russian |
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Nauka
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Лëд и снег |
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| Online Access: | https://ice-snow.igras.ru/jour/article/view/1513 |
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| author | I. A. Korneva A. D. Oleynikov P. A. Toropov N. E. Varentsova N. V. Kovalenko |
| author_facet | I. A. Korneva A. D. Oleynikov P. A. Toropov N. E. Varentsova N. V. Kovalenko |
| author_sort | I. A. Korneva |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The paper considers a forecast of avalanche danger in the Caucasus at the end of the 21st century based on the climatic avalanche indicator criterion developed at Moscow State University, using the results of the CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESM). The quality of models’ estimates of modern winter climate in the Caucasus has been evaluated. The best models were selected, for which the average temperature error is –0.6 °C, precipitation error is 10 %. According to these models’ data, by the end of the XXI century the average winter air temperature in the Caucasus will be 4–6 °C higher than the present one, and the precipitation sum will exceed the modern value by 25 %. The frequency of seasons with extreme moisture will increase 2–3 times (monthly precipitation more than 100 mm). The seasonal maximum precipitation at the end of the 21st century will shift to March, while extremely dangerous avalanche winters are usually accompanied by a January maximum precipitation with a significant negative temperature anomaly. Experiments were also conducted with the numerical model SNOWPACK, which showed that despite the positive precipitation anomaly and the possible occurrence of cold winters, the most typical situation by the end of the 21st century will be the formation of a homogeneous snow column with low density, or heavily watered snow cover. Both situations are not avalanche-prone. Therefore, the background forecast of avalanche danger for the years 2071–2100 can be formulated as follows: a significant decrease in the frequency of the most destructive large avalanches from dry snow in high-mountain areas and their disappearance in mid-mountain areas, and a tendency to an increase in the number of less dangerous avalanches from loose and wet snow. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-f8ffe65f2f0543f0a1a42d28baf844d7 |
| institution | Matheson Library |
| issn | 2076-6734 2412-3765 |
| language | Russian |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | Nauka |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Лëд и снег |
| spelling | doaj-art-f8ffe65f2f0543f0a1a42d28baf844d72025-08-04T14:07:49ZrusNaukaЛëд и снег2076-67342412-37652025-05-0165110311910.31857/S2076673425010082917Meteorological conditions and avalanche danger of winters in the Caucasus at the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century based on the results of CMIP6 modelsI. A. Korneva0A. D. Oleynikov1P. A. Toropov2N. E. Varentsova3N. V. Kovalenko4Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of SciencesLomonosov Moscow State UniversityInstitute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences; Lomonosov Moscow State UniversityLomonosov Moscow State UniversityLomonosov Moscow State UniversityThe paper considers a forecast of avalanche danger in the Caucasus at the end of the 21st century based on the climatic avalanche indicator criterion developed at Moscow State University, using the results of the CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESM). The quality of models’ estimates of modern winter climate in the Caucasus has been evaluated. The best models were selected, for which the average temperature error is –0.6 °C, precipitation error is 10 %. According to these models’ data, by the end of the XXI century the average winter air temperature in the Caucasus will be 4–6 °C higher than the present one, and the precipitation sum will exceed the modern value by 25 %. The frequency of seasons with extreme moisture will increase 2–3 times (monthly precipitation more than 100 mm). The seasonal maximum precipitation at the end of the 21st century will shift to March, while extremely dangerous avalanche winters are usually accompanied by a January maximum precipitation with a significant negative temperature anomaly. Experiments were also conducted with the numerical model SNOWPACK, which showed that despite the positive precipitation anomaly and the possible occurrence of cold winters, the most typical situation by the end of the 21st century will be the formation of a homogeneous snow column with low density, or heavily watered snow cover. Both situations are not avalanche-prone. Therefore, the background forecast of avalanche danger for the years 2071–2100 can be formulated as follows: a significant decrease in the frequency of the most destructive large avalanches from dry snow in high-mountain areas and their disappearance in mid-mountain areas, and a tendency to an increase in the number of less dangerous avalanches from loose and wet snow.https://ice-snow.igras.ru/jour/article/view/1513avalanchesavalanche dangercmip6 modelssnowpack modelmeteorological conditions of extreme avalanche formation |
| spellingShingle | I. A. Korneva A. D. Oleynikov P. A. Toropov N. E. Varentsova N. V. Kovalenko Meteorological conditions and avalanche danger of winters in the Caucasus at the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century based on the results of CMIP6 models Лëд и снег avalanches avalanche danger cmip6 models snowpack model meteorological conditions of extreme avalanche formation |
| title | Meteorological conditions and avalanche danger of winters in the Caucasus at the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century based on the results of CMIP6 models |
| title_full | Meteorological conditions and avalanche danger of winters in the Caucasus at the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century based on the results of CMIP6 models |
| title_fullStr | Meteorological conditions and avalanche danger of winters in the Caucasus at the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century based on the results of CMIP6 models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Meteorological conditions and avalanche danger of winters in the Caucasus at the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century based on the results of CMIP6 models |
| title_short | Meteorological conditions and avalanche danger of winters in the Caucasus at the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century based on the results of CMIP6 models |
| title_sort | meteorological conditions and avalanche danger of winters in the caucasus at the end of the 21 sup st sup century based on the results of cmip6 models |
| topic | avalanches avalanche danger cmip6 models snowpack model meteorological conditions of extreme avalanche formation |
| url | https://ice-snow.igras.ru/jour/article/view/1513 |
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