Nomogram based on tumor burden score for prediction of prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma before hepatectomy

Nomogram based on tumor burden score for prediction of prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma before hepatectomy

PurposeTo develop nomogram models predicting the prognosis for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) before hepatectomy.MethodsPatients treated at the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital and Zhongda Hospital, Southeast University, from January 2012 to July 2014, were retrospectively enroll...

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Main Authors: Qianru Xiao, Zhengqing Lei, Anfeng Si, Xuewu Tang, Facai Yang, Weihu Ma, Cheng Chi, Qiushi Yu, Yigang He, Haolan Tang, Tianhang Su, Fangyuan Hu, Jianning Lu, Youheng Yu, Ziqi Liu, Pinghua Yang, Zhangjun Cheng
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Frontiers Media S.A. 2025-07-01
Series:Frontiers in Oncology
Subjects:
hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)
tumor burden score (TBS)
hepatectomy
alphafetoprotein (AFP)
estimated hepatectomy extent
Online Access:https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2025.1578859/full
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Summary:PurposeTo develop nomogram models predicting the prognosis for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) before hepatectomy.MethodsPatients treated at the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital and Zhongda Hospital, Southeast University, from January 2012 to July 2014, were retrospectively enrolled. Prediction models for overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were constructed.ResultsA total of 1117 patients with HCC were enrolled in this study, and were divided into a training cohort (n=838) and a validation cohort (n=279). A prediction model for OS in the training cohort (OS-nomo, C-index=0.71), including alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), estimated hepatectomy extent, and tumor burden score (TBS) as independent factors (all P<0.05), was constructed. For clinical application, we stratified all patients into three distinct risk groups: low-, medium-, and high-risk group for OS, based on total points (TPs). Patients undergoing major hepatectomy, with AFP>20 ng/mL and high level of TBS had the worst OS.ConclusionWhen selecting patients with HCC for hepatectomy, factors including sex, CPS, AFP level, estimated hepatectomy extent, and TBS should be carefully considered. OS-nomo model could serve as important tool for personalized survival prediction.
ISSN:2234-943X

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