Advanced Multivariate Models Incorporating Non-Climatic Exogenous Variables for Very Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting
This study explores advanced multivariate models that incorporate non-climatic exogenous variables for very short-term photovoltaic energy forecasting. By integrating historical energy data from multiple photovoltaic plants, the research aims to improve the prediction accuracy of a target plant whil...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Electricity |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2673-4826/6/2/29 |
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| Summary: | This study explores advanced multivariate models that incorporate non-climatic exogenous variables for very short-term photovoltaic energy forecasting. By integrating historical energy data from multiple photovoltaic plants, the research aims to improve the prediction accuracy of a target plant while addressing critical challenges in electric power systems (EPS), such as frequency stability. Frequency stability becomes increasingly complex as renewable energy sources penetrate the grid because of their intermittent nature. To mitigate this challenge, precise forecasting of photovoltaic energy generation is essential for balancing supply and demand in real time. The performance of long short-term memory (LSTM) networks and bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) networks was compared over a 5 min horizon. Including energy generation data from neighboring plants significantly improved prediction accuracy compared to univariate models. Among the models, multivariate BiLSTM showed superior performance, achieving a lower root-mean-square error (RMSE) and higher correlation coefficients. Quantile regression applied to manage prediction uncertainty, providing robust confidence intervals. The results suggest that incorporating an exogenous power series effectively captures spatial correlations and enhances prediction accuracy. This approach offers practical benefits for optimizing grid management, reducing operational costs, improving the integration of renewable energy sources, and supporting frequency stability in power generation systems. |
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| ISSN: | 2673-4826 |