Dynamics of Regional Business Cycles in Colombian Cities: Identification of Growth Rates, Recession Propagation, and Cluster Analysis
Using a Markov switching panel, this research analyzes business cycle dynamics in 23 Colombian cities and metropolitan areas. First, we find heterogeneous values by identifying expansion and recession growth rates using employment and economic covariables. Second, cluster analysis groups cities wit...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Universidad del Rosario
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Revista de Economía del Rosario |
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| Online Access: | https://revistas.urosario.edu.co/index.php/economia/article/view/15338 |
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| author | Juan David Valencia Beltrán |
| author_facet | Juan David Valencia Beltrán |
| author_sort | Juan David Valencia Beltrán |
| collection | DOAJ |
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Using a Markov switching panel, this research analyzes business cycle dynamics in 23 Colombian cities and metropolitan areas. First, we find heterogeneous values by identifying expansion and recession growth rates using employment and economic covariables. Second, cluster analysis groups cities with shared economic patterns and key explanatory factors. Finally, we examine how historical recessions propagate across these clusters. The findings highlight diverse growth rates and common recession factors, providing a comprehensive view of urban economic dynamics. This approach contributes to more effective policy formulation by considering regional variability in economic cycles.
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d0e34e8ef6944d08a576eb2bd53c38b5 |
| institution | Matheson Library |
| issn | 2145-454X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Universidad del Rosario |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Revista de Economía del Rosario |
| spelling | doaj-art-d0e34e8ef6944d08a576eb2bd53c38b52025-07-22T16:52:51ZengUniversidad del RosarioRevista de Economía del Rosario2145-454X2025-06-0127110.12804/revistas.urosario.edu.co/economia/a.15338Dynamics of Regional Business Cycles in Colombian Cities: Identification of Growth Rates, Recession Propagation, and Cluster AnalysisJuan David Valencia Beltránhttps://orcid.org/0009-0004-2091-005X Using a Markov switching panel, this research analyzes business cycle dynamics in 23 Colombian cities and metropolitan areas. First, we find heterogeneous values by identifying expansion and recession growth rates using employment and economic covariables. Second, cluster analysis groups cities with shared economic patterns and key explanatory factors. Finally, we examine how historical recessions propagate across these clusters. The findings highlight diverse growth rates and common recession factors, providing a comprehensive view of urban economic dynamics. This approach contributes to more effective policy formulation by considering regional variability in economic cycles. https://revistas.urosario.edu.co/index.php/economia/article/view/15338Business CycleRegional dynamicsCluster analysisEconomic recession |
| spellingShingle | Juan David Valencia Beltrán Dynamics of Regional Business Cycles in Colombian Cities: Identification of Growth Rates, Recession Propagation, and Cluster Analysis Revista de Economía del Rosario Business Cycle Regional dynamics Cluster analysis Economic recession |
| title | Dynamics of Regional Business Cycles in Colombian Cities: Identification of Growth Rates, Recession Propagation, and Cluster Analysis |
| title_full | Dynamics of Regional Business Cycles in Colombian Cities: Identification of Growth Rates, Recession Propagation, and Cluster Analysis |
| title_fullStr | Dynamics of Regional Business Cycles in Colombian Cities: Identification of Growth Rates, Recession Propagation, and Cluster Analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Dynamics of Regional Business Cycles in Colombian Cities: Identification of Growth Rates, Recession Propagation, and Cluster Analysis |
| title_short | Dynamics of Regional Business Cycles in Colombian Cities: Identification of Growth Rates, Recession Propagation, and Cluster Analysis |
| title_sort | dynamics of regional business cycles in colombian cities identification of growth rates recession propagation and cluster analysis |
| topic | Business Cycle Regional dynamics Cluster analysis Economic recession |
| url | https://revistas.urosario.edu.co/index.php/economia/article/view/15338 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT juandavidvalenciabeltran dynamicsofregionalbusinesscyclesincolombiancitiesidentificationofgrowthratesrecessionpropagationandclusteranalysis |