S-I-R Model and COVID-19 Data-Based Numerical Ro Estimation for Pandemic Modeling
A contagious disease transmits from human to human or animal to human. At present world is encountered with such a disease, known as COVID-19. More than half a million people have died due to this pandemic. The pandemic started in China and spread within no time to other parts of the world. Italy a...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Sir Syed University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi.
2022-12-01
|
| Series: | Sir Syed University Research Journal of Engineering and Technology |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sirsyeduniversity.edu.pk/ssurj/rj/index.php/ssurj/article/view/384 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1839649998862548992 |
|---|---|
| author | Fayzan Ahmed Majid Iqbal Arshad Iqbal Zaheer Uddin |
| author_facet | Fayzan Ahmed Majid Iqbal Arshad Iqbal Zaheer Uddin |
| author_sort | Fayzan Ahmed |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description |
A contagious disease transmits from human to human or animal to human. At present world is encountered with such a disease, known as COVID-19. More than half a million people have died due to this pandemic. The pandemic started in China and spread within no time to other parts of the world. Italy and USA are the most unfortunate countries as a large number of deaths occurred in these two countries. No doubt this contagious disease has created social as well as economic problems all over the world, especially in underdeveloped countries. The disease easily transmits to a healthy person during social contact. An epidemic model was developed known as the Kermack-McKendrick model described as SIR (Susceptible Infected and Recovered) model, it deals with the rate of transmission of disease and rate of infection. It gives a trend of infectious disease in a large population. The model helps epidemiologists and health policymakers to understand the probable transmission of disease and to take possible and effective measures to control or reduce the spread of the virus. The factor Ro, known as the reproductive number, can be considered as a threshold value for the disease to be an epidemic. In this study, we used the SIR model to study the effect of COVID-19 in Pakistan. Three coupled differential equations of the SIR model have been solved by numerically using COVID-19 data for Pakistan.
The Ro estimated by the current Pakistan COVID-19 data is found to be 2.656 from which control measures will cause a decrease in Ro. Due to the reduction in Ro, the apex of the infected population curve predicted to be range from 26 % to 3 %, and the time to reach the apex ranges from 161 to 710 days. Also, the current data is compared with the numerical values by solving the SIR model. However, the model has limitations due to which parameters can be approximately calculated that might match the actual values to some extent. The application of the model is simple and students can easily learn about the computational techniques used to solve the coupled differential equations.
|
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c5612bac1e6444428035efa82c9c0d0c |
| institution | Matheson Library |
| issn | 1997-0641 2415-2048 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-12-01 |
| publisher | Sir Syed University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Sir Syed University Research Journal of Engineering and Technology |
| spelling | doaj-art-c5612bac1e6444428035efa82c9c0d0c2025-06-27T08:43:41ZengSir Syed University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi.Sir Syed University Research Journal of Engineering and Technology1997-06412415-20482022-12-01122S-I-R Model and COVID-19 Data-Based Numerical Ro Estimation for Pandemic ModelingFayzan Ahmed0Majid Iqbal1Arshad Iqbal2Zaheer Uddin3Department of Physics, University of Karachi, Karachi, Pakistan. Department of Radiology, Liaquat National Hospital and Medical College, Karachi, Pakistan3Department of Radiology, Liaquat National Hospital and Medical College, Karachi, PakistanFazaia Inter College, Malir Cantt, Karachi, PakistanDepartment of Chemical Engineering, Dawood University of Engineering & Technology, Karachi, PakistanDepartment of Physics, University of Karachi, Karachi, Pakistan A contagious disease transmits from human to human or animal to human. At present world is encountered with such a disease, known as COVID-19. More than half a million people have died due to this pandemic. The pandemic started in China and spread within no time to other parts of the world. Italy and USA are the most unfortunate countries as a large number of deaths occurred in these two countries. No doubt this contagious disease has created social as well as economic problems all over the world, especially in underdeveloped countries. The disease easily transmits to a healthy person during social contact. An epidemic model was developed known as the Kermack-McKendrick model described as SIR (Susceptible Infected and Recovered) model, it deals with the rate of transmission of disease and rate of infection. It gives a trend of infectious disease in a large population. The model helps epidemiologists and health policymakers to understand the probable transmission of disease and to take possible and effective measures to control or reduce the spread of the virus. The factor Ro, known as the reproductive number, can be considered as a threshold value for the disease to be an epidemic. In this study, we used the SIR model to study the effect of COVID-19 in Pakistan. Three coupled differential equations of the SIR model have been solved by numerically using COVID-19 data for Pakistan. The Ro estimated by the current Pakistan COVID-19 data is found to be 2.656 from which control measures will cause a decrease in Ro. Due to the reduction in Ro, the apex of the infected population curve predicted to be range from 26 % to 3 %, and the time to reach the apex ranges from 161 to 710 days. Also, the current data is compared with the numerical values by solving the SIR model. However, the model has limitations due to which parameters can be approximately calculated that might match the actual values to some extent. The application of the model is simple and students can easily learn about the computational techniques used to solve the coupled differential equations. http://www.sirsyeduniversity.edu.pk/ssurj/rj/index.php/ssurj/article/view/384COVID-19PandemicRunge-Kutta 4th orderRK4SIR model |
| spellingShingle | Fayzan Ahmed Majid Iqbal Arshad Iqbal Zaheer Uddin S-I-R Model and COVID-19 Data-Based Numerical Ro Estimation for Pandemic Modeling Sir Syed University Research Journal of Engineering and Technology COVID-19 Pandemic Runge-Kutta 4th order RK4 SIR model |
| title | S-I-R Model and COVID-19 Data-Based Numerical Ro Estimation for Pandemic Modeling |
| title_full | S-I-R Model and COVID-19 Data-Based Numerical Ro Estimation for Pandemic Modeling |
| title_fullStr | S-I-R Model and COVID-19 Data-Based Numerical Ro Estimation for Pandemic Modeling |
| title_full_unstemmed | S-I-R Model and COVID-19 Data-Based Numerical Ro Estimation for Pandemic Modeling |
| title_short | S-I-R Model and COVID-19 Data-Based Numerical Ro Estimation for Pandemic Modeling |
| title_sort | s i r model and covid 19 data based numerical ro estimation for pandemic modeling |
| topic | COVID-19 Pandemic Runge-Kutta 4th order RK4 SIR model |
| url | http://www.sirsyeduniversity.edu.pk/ssurj/rj/index.php/ssurj/article/view/384 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT fayzanahmed sirmodelandcovid19databasednumericalroestimationforpandemicmodeling AT majidiqbal sirmodelandcovid19databasednumericalroestimationforpandemicmodeling AT arshadiqbal sirmodelandcovid19databasednumericalroestimationforpandemicmodeling AT zaheeruddin sirmodelandcovid19databasednumericalroestimationforpandemicmodeling |