Widespread global enhancement of vegetation resistance to compound dry-hot events due to anthropogenic climate change
Compound Dry-Hot (CDH) events, the simultaneous occurrence of drought and high temperature events, have become more frequent under recent global warming, posing a serious threat to terrestrial vegetation. However, the role of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) signals in the characteristics of CDH e...
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Elsevier
2025-09-01
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| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25008106 |
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| author | Tian Yao Chuanhao Wu Pat J.-F. Yeh Bill X. Hu Yufei Jiao Qiongfang Li Jie Niu |
| author_facet | Tian Yao Chuanhao Wu Pat J.-F. Yeh Bill X. Hu Yufei Jiao Qiongfang Li Jie Niu |
| author_sort | Tian Yao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Compound Dry-Hot (CDH) events, the simultaneous occurrence of drought and high temperature events, have become more frequent under recent global warming, posing a serious threat to terrestrial vegetation. However, the role of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) signals in the characteristics of CDH events, and its consequence to vegetation vulnerability, are still poorly understood. Based on the meteorological data and simulated Leaf Area Index (LAI) data from four CMIP6 models under the “natural-only” (NAT) and “natural and anthropogenic” (ALL) experiments, this study investigates the ACC impacts on historical (1982–2014) occurrence of CDH (with different intensities and durations) and quantifies the anthropogenic signals in vegetation vulnerability by using the Fraction of Attributable Risk method. The results show that ACC not only increases the frequency and duration of CDH over most global regions, also simultaneously causes a globally widespread increase in vegetation resistance to CDH (particularly in the Southern Hemisphere), which reduces the probability of vegetation loss (defined as LAI ≤ 40th percentile) by 7.2∼19.6 % on global average. Moreover, vegetation resistance generally increases with CDH intensity globally, mainly due to the expanded vegetation coverage and the alleviation of high-temperature inhibitory effects on vegetation growth. We also find that ACC increases the vulnerability of Tundra and Taiga to CDH only in northern high-latitudes due to the decreased vegetation coverage, but enhances the grassland resistance to CDH to a lesser extent than forests due to the greater physiological burden brought by CDH to grasslands than to forests. These findings suggest that climate adaptation strategies should prioritize vegetation protection in high-latitudes and promote drought- and heat-resilient vegetation types in grassland and semi-arid regions in order to enhance ecosystem stability under future CDH extremes. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c0c70e2dffc84de3bfa705e788abd5c5 |
| institution | Matheson Library |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-09-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj-art-c0c70e2dffc84de3bfa705e788abd5c52025-07-19T04:38:06ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2025-09-01178113880Widespread global enhancement of vegetation resistance to compound dry-hot events due to anthropogenic climate changeTian Yao0Chuanhao Wu1Pat J.-F. Yeh2Bill X. Hu3Yufei Jiao4Qiongfang Li5Jie Niu6School of Water Conservancy and Environment, University of Jinan, Jinan 250022, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; Corresponding author at: State Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China.Department of Civil Engineering, School of Engineering, Monash University, Malaysia Campus, MalaysiaSchool of Water Conservancy and Environment, University of Jinan, Jinan 250022, China; Corresponding author.School of Water Conservancy and Environment, University of Jinan, Jinan 250022, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, ChinaThe College of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Guizhou University, Guiyang, ChinaCompound Dry-Hot (CDH) events, the simultaneous occurrence of drought and high temperature events, have become more frequent under recent global warming, posing a serious threat to terrestrial vegetation. However, the role of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) signals in the characteristics of CDH events, and its consequence to vegetation vulnerability, are still poorly understood. Based on the meteorological data and simulated Leaf Area Index (LAI) data from four CMIP6 models under the “natural-only” (NAT) and “natural and anthropogenic” (ALL) experiments, this study investigates the ACC impacts on historical (1982–2014) occurrence of CDH (with different intensities and durations) and quantifies the anthropogenic signals in vegetation vulnerability by using the Fraction of Attributable Risk method. The results show that ACC not only increases the frequency and duration of CDH over most global regions, also simultaneously causes a globally widespread increase in vegetation resistance to CDH (particularly in the Southern Hemisphere), which reduces the probability of vegetation loss (defined as LAI ≤ 40th percentile) by 7.2∼19.6 % on global average. Moreover, vegetation resistance generally increases with CDH intensity globally, mainly due to the expanded vegetation coverage and the alleviation of high-temperature inhibitory effects on vegetation growth. We also find that ACC increases the vulnerability of Tundra and Taiga to CDH only in northern high-latitudes due to the decreased vegetation coverage, but enhances the grassland resistance to CDH to a lesser extent than forests due to the greater physiological burden brought by CDH to grasslands than to forests. These findings suggest that climate adaptation strategies should prioritize vegetation protection in high-latitudes and promote drought- and heat-resilient vegetation types in grassland and semi-arid regions in order to enhance ecosystem stability under future CDH extremes.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25008106Compound dry-hot eventsVegetation resistanceAnthropogenic climate changeAttribution analysis |
| spellingShingle | Tian Yao Chuanhao Wu Pat J.-F. Yeh Bill X. Hu Yufei Jiao Qiongfang Li Jie Niu Widespread global enhancement of vegetation resistance to compound dry-hot events due to anthropogenic climate change Ecological Indicators Compound dry-hot events Vegetation resistance Anthropogenic climate change Attribution analysis |
| title | Widespread global enhancement of vegetation resistance to compound dry-hot events due to anthropogenic climate change |
| title_full | Widespread global enhancement of vegetation resistance to compound dry-hot events due to anthropogenic climate change |
| title_fullStr | Widespread global enhancement of vegetation resistance to compound dry-hot events due to anthropogenic climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Widespread global enhancement of vegetation resistance to compound dry-hot events due to anthropogenic climate change |
| title_short | Widespread global enhancement of vegetation resistance to compound dry-hot events due to anthropogenic climate change |
| title_sort | widespread global enhancement of vegetation resistance to compound dry hot events due to anthropogenic climate change |
| topic | Compound dry-hot events Vegetation resistance Anthropogenic climate change Attribution analysis |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25008106 |
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