Impact of Background Error Length Scale Tuning in WRF-3DVAR System on High-Resolution Radar Data Assimilation for Typhoon Doksuri Simulation
To improve the prediction of Typhoon Doksuri (2023), this paper explores how variations in horizontal scale factors used in assimilating radar-derived wind velocities influence the performance of numerical simulations and forecasts. Using the WRF-ARW model in conjunction with the WRF-3DVAR data assi...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/16/6/679 |
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| Summary: | To improve the prediction of Typhoon Doksuri (2023), this paper explores how variations in horizontal scale factors used in assimilating radar-derived wind velocities influence the performance of numerical simulations and forecasts. Using the WRF-ARW model in conjunction with the WRF-3DVAR data assimilation system, two assimilation configurations were tested with horizontal length scale factors of 1.0 and 0.25. Results show that a reduced length scale facilitates a more detailed reconstruction of mesoscale features, including the typhoon’s eye and inner-core circulation, leading to improved accuracy in short-term intensity and structure forecasts. The experiment utilizing the 0.25 length scale exhibited a tighter warm core, stronger cyclonic wind bands, and a better representation of the vortex’s three-dimensional structure. However, this configuration also led to growing forecast deviations in the latter stages, likely due to imbalances introduced by excessive localization. In contrast, the 1.0-scale experiment produced smoother but less accurate structures and demonstrated larger track deviations. These findings highlight a key trade-off between localized observational influence and long-term forecast stability. The study underscores the importance of optimizing horizontal scale parameterization in variational assimilation to enhance the forecasting accuracy of high-impact tropical cyclones and offers practical insights for operational forecasting systems in regions frequently affected by typhoon activity. |
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| ISSN: | 2073-4433 |