From flood to drought: Integrating water level magnitude and timing to predict floodplain vegetation dynamics in Poyang Lake
Hydrological variability is a key driver of floodplain vegetation dynamics, yet current models often overlook the role of event timing. In this study, a temporally explicit two-stage modeling framework was developed by integrating a Gaussian stage–area function with random forest residual correction...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25007289 |
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| author | Kang Peng Xianqiang Tang Rui Li Danyang Wang Yanping Hu |
| author_facet | Kang Peng Xianqiang Tang Rui Li Danyang Wang Yanping Hu |
| author_sort | Kang Peng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Hydrological variability is a key driver of floodplain vegetation dynamics, yet current models often overlook the role of event timing. In this study, a temporally explicit two-stage modeling framework was developed by integrating a Gaussian stage–area function with random forest residual correction to separately capture water-level magnitude and sequencing effects. Spatial and temporal cross-validation confirmed the robustness of the approach under varying hydrological regimes, supporting the reliability of subsequent threshold analyses. Vegetation structure was further quantified using landscape metrics under different hydrological states. Vegetation cover peaked at ∼11.2 m stage, while sensitivity analysis revealed that suppression occurred when flood durations ranged from 40 to 100 days or drought-free intervals remained below ∼60 days; recovery was promoted by dry intervals exceeding ∼100 days. Strongly connected sub-lakes exhibited frequent vegetation transitions, whereas isolated or semi-regulated basins maintained greater temporal stability but remained vulnerable to the compound disturbances of 2020–2023, especially the 2022 extreme drought. Incorporating timing-based indicators improved model accuracy (R2 from 0.33 to 0.81) and provided early-warning signals of resilience erosion. These findings offer a replicable framework for wetland ecosystem monitoring and underscore the importance of disturbance–recovery rhythms in guiding adaptive connectivity management. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b097ab8b841e4420b62634f12cdbd8d6 |
| institution | Matheson Library |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj-art-b097ab8b841e4420b62634f12cdbd8d62025-07-04T04:46:19ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2025-08-01177113798From flood to drought: Integrating water level magnitude and timing to predict floodplain vegetation dynamics in Poyang LakeKang Peng0Xianqiang Tang1Rui Li2Danyang Wang3Yanping Hu4Basin Water Environmental Research Department, Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan, China; Key Lab of Basin Water Resource and Eco-Environmental Science in Hubei Province, Wuhan, ChinaBasin Water Environmental Research Department, Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan, China; Key Lab of Basin Water Resource and Eco-Environmental Science in Hubei Province, Wuhan, China; Corresponding author at: Basin Water Environmental Research Department, Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan, China.Basin Water Environmental Research Department, Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan, China; Key Lab of Basin Water Resource and Eco-Environmental Science in Hubei Province, Wuhan, ChinaBasin Water Environmental Research Department, Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan, China; Key Lab of Basin Water Resource and Eco-Environmental Science in Hubei Province, Wuhan, ChinaBasin Water Environmental Research Department, Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan, China; Key Lab of Basin Water Resource and Eco-Environmental Science in Hubei Province, Wuhan, ChinaHydrological variability is a key driver of floodplain vegetation dynamics, yet current models often overlook the role of event timing. In this study, a temporally explicit two-stage modeling framework was developed by integrating a Gaussian stage–area function with random forest residual correction to separately capture water-level magnitude and sequencing effects. Spatial and temporal cross-validation confirmed the robustness of the approach under varying hydrological regimes, supporting the reliability of subsequent threshold analyses. Vegetation structure was further quantified using landscape metrics under different hydrological states. Vegetation cover peaked at ∼11.2 m stage, while sensitivity analysis revealed that suppression occurred when flood durations ranged from 40 to 100 days or drought-free intervals remained below ∼60 days; recovery was promoted by dry intervals exceeding ∼100 days. Strongly connected sub-lakes exhibited frequent vegetation transitions, whereas isolated or semi-regulated basins maintained greater temporal stability but remained vulnerable to the compound disturbances of 2020–2023, especially the 2022 extreme drought. Incorporating timing-based indicators improved model accuracy (R2 from 0.33 to 0.81) and provided early-warning signals of resilience erosion. These findings offer a replicable framework for wetland ecosystem monitoring and underscore the importance of disturbance–recovery rhythms in guiding adaptive connectivity management.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25007289Floodplain vegetation dynamicsHydrological regime timingLandsat remote sensingVegetation-hydrology resilience indicatorsPoyang Lake |
| spellingShingle | Kang Peng Xianqiang Tang Rui Li Danyang Wang Yanping Hu From flood to drought: Integrating water level magnitude and timing to predict floodplain vegetation dynamics in Poyang Lake Ecological Indicators Floodplain vegetation dynamics Hydrological regime timing Landsat remote sensing Vegetation-hydrology resilience indicators Poyang Lake |
| title | From flood to drought: Integrating water level magnitude and timing to predict floodplain vegetation dynamics in Poyang Lake |
| title_full | From flood to drought: Integrating water level magnitude and timing to predict floodplain vegetation dynamics in Poyang Lake |
| title_fullStr | From flood to drought: Integrating water level magnitude and timing to predict floodplain vegetation dynamics in Poyang Lake |
| title_full_unstemmed | From flood to drought: Integrating water level magnitude and timing to predict floodplain vegetation dynamics in Poyang Lake |
| title_short | From flood to drought: Integrating water level magnitude and timing to predict floodplain vegetation dynamics in Poyang Lake |
| title_sort | from flood to drought integrating water level magnitude and timing to predict floodplain vegetation dynamics in poyang lake |
| topic | Floodplain vegetation dynamics Hydrological regime timing Landsat remote sensing Vegetation-hydrology resilience indicators Poyang Lake |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25007289 |
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