Mapping Multiple Wild Pig Species’ Population Dynamics in Southeast Asia During the African Swine Fever Outbreak (2018–2024)

Mapping Multiple Wild Pig Species’ Population Dynamics in Southeast Asia During the African Swine Fever Outbreak (2018–2024)

ABSTRACT The 2018 arrival of African swine fever (ASF) in China was followed by reports of wild pig deaths across most countries in Southeast Asia. However, the magnitude and duration of population‐level impacts of ASF on wild pig species remain unclear. To elucidate the spatiotemporal spread of ASF...

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Main Authors: Zoë E. Lieb, Erik Meijaard, Jedediah F. Brodie, Adi Shabrani, Jayasilan Mohd‐Azlan, Jatna Supriatna, Matthew John Struebig, Nicolas J. Deere, Katie L. Spencer, Suipeng Heon, Lok‐Jinn Wong, Suzika Juiling, Andrew Hearn, Camille N. Z. Coudrat, Agus Sudibyo Jati, Matthew Linkie, Dusit Ngoprasert, Dhritiman Das, Oliver R. Wearn, Russell J. Gray, Al John C. Cabanas, Andaman Chankhao, Apinya Saisamorn, Badrul Azhar, Benjamin P. Y.‐H. Lee, Benoit Goossens, Carl Traeholt, David W. MacDonald, Emilia A. Lastica‐Ternura, Fernando Garcia‐Gil, Freddy Pattiselanno, Gabriella Fredriksson, Glyn Davies, Harry Hilser, Jamiee Wheelhouse, Jan van derPloeg, John Carlo Redeña‐Santos, Jonathan M. Moore, Karmila Parakkasi, Laura Marie Berman, Samuel Xin Tham Lee, Liam J. Hughes, Lukemann Haqeem Alen, Marc Ancrenaz, Marcus A. H. Chua, Markus Handschuh, Matthew Ward, Mohamad Arif Rifqi, Mohammad Aliyuddin Bin Jaini, Muhammad Syazwan Bin Omar, Nantachai Pongpattananurak, NayMyo Shwe, Olivia Z. Daniel, Pablo Sinovas, Parag Deka, Radinal, Ret Thaung, Robert M. Ewers, Romain Legrand, Ronglarp Sukmasuang, Sally Soo Kaicheen, Salwa Khalid, Saw Soe Aung, Sheherazade Sheherazade, Stuart J. Davies, Thiemo Braasch, Thomas N. E. Gray, Tim Redford, Ulmar Grafe, Xiaoyang Song, Matthew Scott Luskin
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2025-05-01
Series:Conservation Letters
Subjects:
bearded pig (Sus barbatus)
biodiversity monitoring
expert elicitation survey
predator‐prey depletion
Suidaeisland endemics
threatened and endangered species
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.13105
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Summary:ABSTRACT The 2018 arrival of African swine fever (ASF) in China was followed by reports of wild pig deaths across most countries in Southeast Asia. However, the magnitude and duration of population‐level impacts of ASF on wild pig species remain unclear. To elucidate the spatiotemporal spread of ASF in the region for native pig species, we gathered qualitative information on wild pig population dynamics in Southeast Asia between 2018 and 2024 from 88 expert elicitation questionnaires representing sites in 11 countries. Peak reported population declines occurred in 2021 and 2022, with more than half of respondents reporting declining wild pig populations, far higher than in earlier years. The reported declines waned to 44.23% in 2024, whereas simultaneously, the number of populations reported to be “increasing” increased from 11.3%–13.2% in 2019–2022 to 28.9% in 2024. These reports suggest that the ASF outbreak may have peaked for wild boars and bearded pigs in mainland Southeast Asia, Borneo, and Sumatra, with some subsequent recovery. However, the disease is still expanding into the ranges of island endemic species, such as new reports for the Sulawesi warty pig (Sus celebensis) in September of 2024. Island endemics remain particularly vulnerable to extinction from ASF and require urgent monitoring and conservation action.
ISSN:1755-263X

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