Five-year conditional relative survival up to 10 years post-diagnosis among adolescent and young adult breast cancer patients by age, stage, and receptor subtype

Background: Conditional relative survival (CRS), the probability of survival given that an individual has already survived a certain period post-diagnosis, is a more clinically relevant measure for long-term survival than standard relative survival (RS). This study aims to evaluate the 5-year CRS am...

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Main Authors: Noëlle J.M.C. Vrancken Peeters, Daniël J. van der Meer, Marleen Kok, Marissa C. van Maaren, Marie-Jeanne T.F.D. Vrancken Peeters, Sabine Siesling, Winette T.A. van der Graaf, Olga Husson
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-06-01
Series:Journal of the National Cancer Center
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667005425000407
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author Noëlle J.M.C. Vrancken Peeters
Daniël J. van der Meer
Marleen Kok
Marissa C. van Maaren
Marie-Jeanne T.F.D. Vrancken Peeters
Sabine Siesling
Winette T.A. van der Graaf
Olga Husson
author_facet Noëlle J.M.C. Vrancken Peeters
Daniël J. van der Meer
Marleen Kok
Marissa C. van Maaren
Marie-Jeanne T.F.D. Vrancken Peeters
Sabine Siesling
Winette T.A. van der Graaf
Olga Husson
author_sort Noëlle J.M.C. Vrancken Peeters
collection DOAJ
description Background: Conditional relative survival (CRS), the probability of survival given that an individual has already survived a certain period post-diagnosis, is a more clinically relevant measure for long-term survival than standard relative survival (RS). This study aims to evaluate the 5-year CRS among adolescent and young adult (AYA) breast cancer patients by age, tumor stage, and receptor subtype to guide disclosure periods for insurance. Methods: Data of all females aged 18–39 years and diagnosed with invasive breast cancer between 2003 and 2021 (n = 13,075) were obtained from The Netherlands Cancer Registry (NCR). The five-year CRS was calculated annually up to 10 years post-diagnosis using a hybrid analysis approach. Results: For the total AYA breast cancer study population the 5-year CRS exceeded 90 % from diagnosis and increased beyond 95 % 7 years post-diagnosis. Patients aged 18–24 reached 95 % 9 years post-diagnosis, those aged 25–29 after 5 years, and those aged 30–34 and 35–39 after 8 years. For stage I, the 5-year CRS reached 95 % from diagnosis, for stage II after 6 years, while the 5-year CRS for stages III and IV did not reach the 95 % threshold during the 10-year follow-up. Triple-negative tumors exceeded 95 % after 4 years, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) positive tumors after 6 years, while hormone receptor (HR) positive tumors did not reach 95 %. Conclusion: Excess mortality among AYA breast cancer patients tends to be little (CRS 90 %–95 %) from diagnosis and becomes minimal (CRS>95 %) over time compared to the general population. These results can enhance expectation management and inform policymakers, suggesting a shorter disclosure period.
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spelling doaj-art-a80f99acba87413c8a360fcf1726a1c82025-06-27T05:52:30ZengElsevierJournal of the National Cancer Center2667-00542025-06-0153297305Five-year conditional relative survival up to 10 years post-diagnosis among adolescent and young adult breast cancer patients by age, stage, and receptor subtypeNoëlle J.M.C. Vrancken Peeters0Daniël J. van der Meer1Marleen Kok2Marissa C. van Maaren3Marie-Jeanne T.F.D. Vrancken Peeters4Sabine Siesling5Winette T.A. van der Graaf6Olga Husson7Department of Medical Oncology, Netherlands Cancer Institute - Antoni van Leeuwenhoek, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Department of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Erasmus University Medical Centre, Rotterdam, The Netherlands; Department of Surgical Oncology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Erasmus University Medical Centre, Rotterdam, The NetherlandsDepartment of Medical Oncology, Netherlands Cancer Institute - Antoni van Leeuwenhoek, Amsterdam, The NetherlandsDepartment of Medical Oncology, Netherlands Cancer Institute - Antoni van Leeuwenhoek, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Division of Tumor Biology & Immunology, Netherlands Cancer Institute - Antoni van Leeuwenhoek, Amsterdam, The NetherlandsDepartment of Health Technology and Services Research, Technical Medical Centre, University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands; Department of Research and Development, Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organisation (IKNL), Utrecht, The NetherlandsDepartment of Surgery, Netherlands Cancer Institute - Antoni van Leeuwenhoek, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Department of Surgery, Amsterdam UMC, Amsterdam, The NetherlandsDepartment of Health Technology and Services Research, Technical Medical Centre, University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands; Department of Research and Development, Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organisation (IKNL), Utrecht, The NetherlandsDepartment of Medical Oncology, Netherlands Cancer Institute - Antoni van Leeuwenhoek, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Department of Medical Oncology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Erasmus University Medical Centre, Rotterdam, The NetherlandsDepartment of Medical Oncology, Netherlands Cancer Institute - Antoni van Leeuwenhoek, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Department of Surgical Oncology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Erasmus University Medical Centre, Rotterdam, The Netherlands; Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Erasmus University Medical Centre, Rotterdam, The Netherlands; Corresponding author.Background: Conditional relative survival (CRS), the probability of survival given that an individual has already survived a certain period post-diagnosis, is a more clinically relevant measure for long-term survival than standard relative survival (RS). This study aims to evaluate the 5-year CRS among adolescent and young adult (AYA) breast cancer patients by age, tumor stage, and receptor subtype to guide disclosure periods for insurance. Methods: Data of all females aged 18–39 years and diagnosed with invasive breast cancer between 2003 and 2021 (n = 13,075) were obtained from The Netherlands Cancer Registry (NCR). The five-year CRS was calculated annually up to 10 years post-diagnosis using a hybrid analysis approach. Results: For the total AYA breast cancer study population the 5-year CRS exceeded 90 % from diagnosis and increased beyond 95 % 7 years post-diagnosis. Patients aged 18–24 reached 95 % 9 years post-diagnosis, those aged 25–29 after 5 years, and those aged 30–34 and 35–39 after 8 years. For stage I, the 5-year CRS reached 95 % from diagnosis, for stage II after 6 years, while the 5-year CRS for stages III and IV did not reach the 95 % threshold during the 10-year follow-up. Triple-negative tumors exceeded 95 % after 4 years, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) positive tumors after 6 years, while hormone receptor (HR) positive tumors did not reach 95 %. Conclusion: Excess mortality among AYA breast cancer patients tends to be little (CRS 90 %–95 %) from diagnosis and becomes minimal (CRS>95 %) over time compared to the general population. These results can enhance expectation management and inform policymakers, suggesting a shorter disclosure period.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667005425000407Adolescents and young adults (AYAS)Breast cancerConditional relative survival (CRS)Excess mortalityRelative survival (RS)Survivorship
spellingShingle Noëlle J.M.C. Vrancken Peeters
Daniël J. van der Meer
Marleen Kok
Marissa C. van Maaren
Marie-Jeanne T.F.D. Vrancken Peeters
Sabine Siesling
Winette T.A. van der Graaf
Olga Husson
Five-year conditional relative survival up to 10 years post-diagnosis among adolescent and young adult breast cancer patients by age, stage, and receptor subtype
Journal of the National Cancer Center
Adolescents and young adults (AYAS)
Breast cancer
Conditional relative survival (CRS)
Excess mortality
Relative survival (RS)
Survivorship
title Five-year conditional relative survival up to 10 years post-diagnosis among adolescent and young adult breast cancer patients by age, stage, and receptor subtype
title_full Five-year conditional relative survival up to 10 years post-diagnosis among adolescent and young adult breast cancer patients by age, stage, and receptor subtype
title_fullStr Five-year conditional relative survival up to 10 years post-diagnosis among adolescent and young adult breast cancer patients by age, stage, and receptor subtype
title_full_unstemmed Five-year conditional relative survival up to 10 years post-diagnosis among adolescent and young adult breast cancer patients by age, stage, and receptor subtype
title_short Five-year conditional relative survival up to 10 years post-diagnosis among adolescent and young adult breast cancer patients by age, stage, and receptor subtype
title_sort five year conditional relative survival up to 10 years post diagnosis among adolescent and young adult breast cancer patients by age stage and receptor subtype
topic Adolescents and young adults (AYAS)
Breast cancer
Conditional relative survival (CRS)
Excess mortality
Relative survival (RS)
Survivorship
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667005425000407
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