Modeling climate change impacts on the potential distribution of bighorn sheep in Mexico
Climate change is expected to significantly reshape the geographic distribution of many species worldwide. The bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis), a species of ecological, economic, and cultural importance in Mexico, is particularly vulnerable to these environmental shifts. This study applies ecologica...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Climate |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2025.1386632/full |
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| author | Hilda C. Zamora-Maldonado Hilda C. Zamora-Maldonado V. Sophie Avila-Foucat Víctor G. Sánchez-Sotomayor |
| author_facet | Hilda C. Zamora-Maldonado Hilda C. Zamora-Maldonado V. Sophie Avila-Foucat Víctor G. Sánchez-Sotomayor |
| author_sort | Hilda C. Zamora-Maldonado |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change is expected to significantly reshape the geographic distribution of many species worldwide. The bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis), a species of ecological, economic, and cultural importance in Mexico, is particularly vulnerable to these environmental shifts. This study applies ecological niche modeling to estimate the probability of species occurrence based on bioclimatic variables under future climate scenarios. Using four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) and six General Circulation Models, projections are made for the period 2041–2060. This analysis is based on 280 georeferenced records of bighorn sheep occurrences and evaluates changes in temperature and precipitation, which are assumed to influence their potential distribution. Projections suggest a significant reduction in geographic distribution, with drier periods and extreme temperatures exerting the most detrimental effects. These findings pose considerable challenges for long-term conservation and management of bighorn sheep populations, as current strategies may be insufficient. The ecological niche model suggests focusing conservation efforts on Northern Baja California (Californian ecoregion) to identify potential distribution. This research emphasizes the critical need to integrate climate projections into conservation strategies to better manage the uncertainties of climate change. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a4dda65dfe344ef09b1bd5fbb4fb36b4 |
| institution | Matheson Library |
| issn | 2624-9553 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Climate |
| spelling | doaj-art-a4dda65dfe344ef09b1bd5fbb4fb36b42025-06-25T04:10:29ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Climate2624-95532025-06-01710.3389/fclim.2025.13866321386632Modeling climate change impacts on the potential distribution of bighorn sheep in MexicoHilda C. Zamora-Maldonado0Hilda C. Zamora-Maldonado1V. Sophie Avila-Foucat2Víctor G. Sánchez-Sotomayor3Institute of Economic Research, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, MexicoTecnologico de Monterrey, Institute of Advanced Materials for Sustainable Manufacturing, Monterrey, MexicoInstitute of Economic Research, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, MexicoConservación en Acción A.C. (Civil Association), Guerrero Negro, MexicoClimate change is expected to significantly reshape the geographic distribution of many species worldwide. The bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis), a species of ecological, economic, and cultural importance in Mexico, is particularly vulnerable to these environmental shifts. This study applies ecological niche modeling to estimate the probability of species occurrence based on bioclimatic variables under future climate scenarios. Using four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) and six General Circulation Models, projections are made for the period 2041–2060. This analysis is based on 280 georeferenced records of bighorn sheep occurrences and evaluates changes in temperature and precipitation, which are assumed to influence their potential distribution. Projections suggest a significant reduction in geographic distribution, with drier periods and extreme temperatures exerting the most detrimental effects. These findings pose considerable challenges for long-term conservation and management of bighorn sheep populations, as current strategies may be insufficient. The ecological niche model suggests focusing conservation efforts on Northern Baja California (Californian ecoregion) to identify potential distribution. This research emphasizes the critical need to integrate climate projections into conservation strategies to better manage the uncertainties of climate change.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2025.1386632/fullecological niche modelingclimate changewildlife managementbighorn sheepconservation planning |
| spellingShingle | Hilda C. Zamora-Maldonado Hilda C. Zamora-Maldonado V. Sophie Avila-Foucat Víctor G. Sánchez-Sotomayor Modeling climate change impacts on the potential distribution of bighorn sheep in Mexico Frontiers in Climate ecological niche modeling climate change wildlife management bighorn sheep conservation planning |
| title | Modeling climate change impacts on the potential distribution of bighorn sheep in Mexico |
| title_full | Modeling climate change impacts on the potential distribution of bighorn sheep in Mexico |
| title_fullStr | Modeling climate change impacts on the potential distribution of bighorn sheep in Mexico |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling climate change impacts on the potential distribution of bighorn sheep in Mexico |
| title_short | Modeling climate change impacts on the potential distribution of bighorn sheep in Mexico |
| title_sort | modeling climate change impacts on the potential distribution of bighorn sheep in mexico |
| topic | ecological niche modeling climate change wildlife management bighorn sheep conservation planning |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2025.1386632/full |
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