A water-carbon-economic model coupling system dynamics and InVEST for Wuhan’s sustainability assessment
Understanding the interactions between water security, carbon storage, and economic and social development (WCE) is critical for achieving sustainable urbanization. This study establishes a coupled WCE system model for Wuhan, China, by integrating System Dynamics (SD) and the Integrated Valuation of...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-09-01
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| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25008234 |
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| author | Yixuan Diao Jun Xia Qianjin Dong Qiting Zuo Mengyun Xie Xiaofeng Peng Long Jiang |
| author_facet | Yixuan Diao Jun Xia Qianjin Dong Qiting Zuo Mengyun Xie Xiaofeng Peng Long Jiang |
| author_sort | Yixuan Diao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Understanding the interactions between water security, carbon storage, and economic and social development (WCE) is critical for achieving sustainable urbanization. This study establishes a coupled WCE system model for Wuhan, China, by integrating System Dynamics (SD) and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model to quantify dynamic socioeconomic processes and spatial ecological patterns. A mechanical model was further employed to quantify system coordination and assess urban sustainability. Future scenarios were simulated to identify optimal development pathways. The results showed: (1) During the historical period (2000–2020), green economic and social development enhanced resource utilization efficiency (+289%) but reduced ecological security levels (−41%). (2) WCE system coordination improved (0.45 → 0.68), while the primary constraint shifted from water scarcity to carbon storage deficit. (3) Future scenario simulations (2021–2030) indicate declining coordination under baseline scenario, whereas the low-carbon green strategy achieves optimal coordination (>0.8), significantly outperforming ecological protection and high-intensity urbanization strategies. This work provides the first quantitative assessment of WCE interactions and coordination status in megalopolises along the Yangtze River Basin, demonstrating the advantage of SD-InVEST coupling in integrating socioeconomic dynamics with ecosystem spatial processes. The proposed framework offers a scientific tool for comprehensive urban planning incorporating water-carbon-economy nexus, with the low-carbon green pathway identified as essential for enhancing sustainability. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9da8438b6e1f4ae68fb17b64e8ce7b9d |
| institution | Matheson Library |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-09-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj-art-9da8438b6e1f4ae68fb17b64e8ce7b9d2025-07-23T05:23:47ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2025-09-01178113893A water-carbon-economic model coupling system dynamics and InVEST for Wuhan’s sustainability assessmentYixuan Diao0Jun Xia1Qianjin Dong2Qiting Zuo3Mengyun Xie4Xiaofeng Peng5Long Jiang6State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China; Corresponding authors.State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China; Corresponding authors.School of Water Conservancy and Transportation, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China; Yellow River Institute for Ecological Protection & Regional Coordination Development, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, ChinaSchool of Urban Design, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, ChinaCollege of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, ChinaUnderstanding the interactions between water security, carbon storage, and economic and social development (WCE) is critical for achieving sustainable urbanization. This study establishes a coupled WCE system model for Wuhan, China, by integrating System Dynamics (SD) and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model to quantify dynamic socioeconomic processes and spatial ecological patterns. A mechanical model was further employed to quantify system coordination and assess urban sustainability. Future scenarios were simulated to identify optimal development pathways. The results showed: (1) During the historical period (2000–2020), green economic and social development enhanced resource utilization efficiency (+289%) but reduced ecological security levels (−41%). (2) WCE system coordination improved (0.45 → 0.68), while the primary constraint shifted from water scarcity to carbon storage deficit. (3) Future scenario simulations (2021–2030) indicate declining coordination under baseline scenario, whereas the low-carbon green strategy achieves optimal coordination (>0.8), significantly outperforming ecological protection and high-intensity urbanization strategies. This work provides the first quantitative assessment of WCE interactions and coordination status in megalopolises along the Yangtze River Basin, demonstrating the advantage of SD-InVEST coupling in integrating socioeconomic dynamics with ecosystem spatial processes. The proposed framework offers a scientific tool for comprehensive urban planning incorporating water-carbon-economy nexus, with the low-carbon green pathway identified as essential for enhancing sustainability.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25008234Water securityCarbon storageSustainable developmentInVESTSystem dynamics |
| spellingShingle | Yixuan Diao Jun Xia Qianjin Dong Qiting Zuo Mengyun Xie Xiaofeng Peng Long Jiang A water-carbon-economic model coupling system dynamics and InVEST for Wuhan’s sustainability assessment Ecological Indicators Water security Carbon storage Sustainable development InVEST System dynamics |
| title | A water-carbon-economic model coupling system dynamics and InVEST for Wuhan’s sustainability assessment |
| title_full | A water-carbon-economic model coupling system dynamics and InVEST for Wuhan’s sustainability assessment |
| title_fullStr | A water-carbon-economic model coupling system dynamics and InVEST for Wuhan’s sustainability assessment |
| title_full_unstemmed | A water-carbon-economic model coupling system dynamics and InVEST for Wuhan’s sustainability assessment |
| title_short | A water-carbon-economic model coupling system dynamics and InVEST for Wuhan’s sustainability assessment |
| title_sort | water carbon economic model coupling system dynamics and invest for wuhan s sustainability assessment |
| topic | Water security Carbon storage Sustainable development InVEST System dynamics |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25008234 |
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