Meridional Oceanic and Atmospheric Heat Fluxes at the Entrance to the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic: Verification of CMIP6 Models and Climate Projections Based on the Selected Sub-Ensembles
Poleward transports of oceanic and atmospheric heat play an essential role in the Arctic climate system, and their variations in the future will strongly shape the climate of the Arctic. The main aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (C...
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Russian Academy of Sciences, The Geophysical Center
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Russian Journal of Earth Sciences |
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| Online Access: | http://doi.org/10.2205/2024ES000917 |
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| author | Latonin Mikhail Bashmachnikov Igor L'vovich Radchenko Iuliia Gnatiuk Natalia Bobylev Leonid Petrovich Pettersson Lasse |
| author_facet | Latonin Mikhail Bashmachnikov Igor L'vovich Radchenko Iuliia Gnatiuk Natalia Bobylev Leonid Petrovich Pettersson Lasse |
| author_sort | Latonin Mikhail |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Poleward transports of oceanic and atmospheric heat play an essential role in the Arctic climate system, and their variations in the future will strongly shape the climate of the Arctic. The main aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models in the historical experiment in simulating the meridional heat fluxes into the Atlantic sector of the Arctic. The secondary objective is to estimate the meridional oceanic and atmospheric heat fluxes up to the end of the 21st century using the best sub-ensembles of the CMIP6 models. According to our results, the CMIP6 models poorly reproduce the interannual variability of the heat fluxes in their historical simulations, and the multi-model ensemble mean values are systematically lower than the mean values derived from the Ocean ReAnalysis System 4 (ORAS4) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) reanalyses. Climate projections based on the selected CMIP6 models indicate that the future Arctic climate will be characterized by the significantly increased oceanic heat transport at the entrance to the Atlantic sector of the Arctic relative to the period 1958–2014. In contrast, the atmospheric heat and moisture transport will not have dramatic differences in the projected Arctic climate relative to the period 1958–2014. Based on the results obtained, we emphasize that any interpretation of future climate simulations should be done with caution. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9bb78d8b68b64cd79e74fbf9b4779f3b |
| institution | Matheson Library |
| issn | 1681-1208 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Russian Academy of Sciences, The Geophysical Center |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Russian Journal of Earth Sciences |
| spelling | doaj-art-9bb78d8b68b64cd79e74fbf9b4779f3b2025-07-29T13:24:24ZengRussian Academy of Sciences, The Geophysical CenterRussian Journal of Earth Sciences1681-12082024-12-0124411610.2205/2024ES000917Meridional Oceanic and Atmospheric Heat Fluxes at the Entrance to the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic: Verification of CMIP6 Models and Climate Projections Based on the Selected Sub-EnsemblesLatonin Mikhail0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8170-9833Bashmachnikov Igor L'vovich1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1257-4197Radchenko Iuliia2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8290-5043Gnatiuk Natalia3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6792-9709Bobylev Leonid Petrovich4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2341-9088Pettersson Lasse5https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6005-7514Nansen International Environmental and Remote Sensing CentreNansen International Environmental and Remote Sensing CentreNansen International Environmental and Remote Sensing CentreNansen International Environmental and Remote Sensing CentreNansen International Environmental and Remote Sensing CentreNansen Environmental and Remote Sensing CenterPoleward transports of oceanic and atmospheric heat play an essential role in the Arctic climate system, and their variations in the future will strongly shape the climate of the Arctic. The main aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models in the historical experiment in simulating the meridional heat fluxes into the Atlantic sector of the Arctic. The secondary objective is to estimate the meridional oceanic and atmospheric heat fluxes up to the end of the 21st century using the best sub-ensembles of the CMIP6 models. According to our results, the CMIP6 models poorly reproduce the interannual variability of the heat fluxes in their historical simulations, and the multi-model ensemble mean values are systematically lower than the mean values derived from the Ocean ReAnalysis System 4 (ORAS4) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) reanalyses. Climate projections based on the selected CMIP6 models indicate that the future Arctic climate will be characterized by the significantly increased oceanic heat transport at the entrance to the Atlantic sector of the Arctic relative to the period 1958–2014. In contrast, the atmospheric heat and moisture transport will not have dramatic differences in the projected Arctic climate relative to the period 1958–2014. Based on the results obtained, we emphasize that any interpretation of future climate simulations should be done with caution.http://doi.org/10.2205/2024ES000917poleward heat transport climate of the Arctic ocean–atmosphere interaction CMIP6 models ORAS4 and ERA5 reanalyses projections North Atlantic |
| spellingShingle | Latonin Mikhail Bashmachnikov Igor L'vovich Radchenko Iuliia Gnatiuk Natalia Bobylev Leonid Petrovich Pettersson Lasse Meridional Oceanic and Atmospheric Heat Fluxes at the Entrance to the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic: Verification of CMIP6 Models and Climate Projections Based on the Selected Sub-Ensembles Russian Journal of Earth Sciences poleward heat transport climate of the Arctic ocean–atmosphere interaction CMIP6 models ORAS4 and ERA5 reanalyses projections North Atlantic |
| title | Meridional Oceanic and Atmospheric Heat Fluxes at the Entrance to the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic: Verification of CMIP6 Models and Climate Projections Based on the Selected Sub-Ensembles |
| title_full | Meridional Oceanic and Atmospheric Heat Fluxes at the Entrance to the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic: Verification of CMIP6 Models and Climate Projections Based on the Selected Sub-Ensembles |
| title_fullStr | Meridional Oceanic and Atmospheric Heat Fluxes at the Entrance to the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic: Verification of CMIP6 Models and Climate Projections Based on the Selected Sub-Ensembles |
| title_full_unstemmed | Meridional Oceanic and Atmospheric Heat Fluxes at the Entrance to the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic: Verification of CMIP6 Models and Climate Projections Based on the Selected Sub-Ensembles |
| title_short | Meridional Oceanic and Atmospheric Heat Fluxes at the Entrance to the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic: Verification of CMIP6 Models and Climate Projections Based on the Selected Sub-Ensembles |
| title_sort | meridional oceanic and atmospheric heat fluxes at the entrance to the atlantic sector of the arctic verification of cmip6 models and climate projections based on the selected sub ensembles |
| topic | poleward heat transport climate of the Arctic ocean–atmosphere interaction CMIP6 models ORAS4 and ERA5 reanalyses projections North Atlantic |
| url | http://doi.org/10.2205/2024ES000917 |
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