EVALUATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF INNOVATION IMPLEMENTATION AT TRANSPORT ENTERPRISES UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY
In the conditions of economic uncertainty associated with war, the task of developing and applying new approaches to assessing the economic efficiency and feasibility of introducing innovations at transport enterprises has become more urgent. In the presented study, a mental model for the formati...
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | German |
| Published: |
Alfred Nobel University
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Academy Review |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://acadrev.duan.edu.ua/images/PDF/2025/2/6.pdf |
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| Summary: | In the conditions of economic uncertainty associated with war, the task of developing and
applying new approaches to assessing the economic efficiency and feasibility of introducing
innovations at transport enterprises has become more urgent. In the presented study, a mental model
for the formation of the effects of innovations was developed based on scenarios that describe existing
relationships and trends, with the aim of incorporating them into the planning of innovative activities
at a transport enterprise using PJSC Ukrzaliznytsia as an example. The authors have demonstrated that, under current conditions, scenario modeling is advisable for forecasting innovative development.
Based on the expert survey, a system of scenarios for the implementation of the innovative project
was developed: «Innovative growth», «Insufficient demand», «Insufficient supply», «Resource
conservation». The study evaluated the potential effectiveness of introducing innovations to improve
transport (railway) infrastructure under the «Insufficient demand» and «Insufficient supply» scenarios
for PJSC Ukrzaliznytsia. It was calculated that, under the «Insufficient demand» scenario, the efficiency
of innovation would be negative but with a tendency towards further growth from -9.4% in 2025 to
-11.8% in 2029. Under the «Insufficient supply» scenario, a negative result from the introduction of
innovations was also obtained, but with a tendency to decrease from -0.4% in 2025 to -0.1% in 2029,
which would lead to an increase in the level of transport demand from 76.81% in 2025 to 89.23% in
2029. It was determined that, under current conditions, the scenario «Insufficient supply» would be more
effective as its implementation would ensure an increase in the level of satisfaction of transportation
needs through increased funding for the innovative project. The analysis of scenarios showed that it is
possible to reduce the probability of unwanted effects by implementing an effective planning system
and using modern financing mechanisms for innovative activities of transport enterprises. |
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| ISSN: | 3041-2137 3041-2145 |