On a planetary forcing of global seismicity
We have explored the temporal variability of the seismicity at global scale over the last 124 years, as well as its potential drivers. To achieve this, we constructed and analyzed an averaged global seismicity curve for earthquakes of magnitude equal or greater than 6.0 since 1900. Using Singular Sp...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Earth Science |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2025.1587650/full |
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| author | Stéphanie Dumont Jean de Bremond d’Ars Jean-Baptiste Boulé Vincent Courtillot Marc Gèze Dominique Gibert Vladimir Kossobokov Jean-Louis Le Mouël Fernando Lopes Maria C. Neves Graça Silveira Graça Silveira Simona Petrosino Pierpaolo Zuddas |
| author_facet | Stéphanie Dumont Jean de Bremond d’Ars Jean-Baptiste Boulé Vincent Courtillot Marc Gèze Dominique Gibert Vladimir Kossobokov Jean-Louis Le Mouël Fernando Lopes Maria C. Neves Graça Silveira Graça Silveira Simona Petrosino Pierpaolo Zuddas |
| author_sort | Stéphanie Dumont |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We have explored the temporal variability of the seismicity at global scale over the last 124 years, as well as its potential drivers. To achieve this, we constructed and analyzed an averaged global seismicity curve for earthquakes of magnitude equal or greater than 6.0 since 1900. Using Singular Spectrum Analysis, we decomposed this curve and compared the extracted pseudo-cycles with two global geophysical parameters associated with Earth’s tides: length-of-day variations and sea-level changes. Our results reveal that these three geophysical signal curves can be reconstructed up to ∼90% by the sum of up to seven periodic components ranging from 1 to ∼60 years, largely aligned with planetary ephemerides. We discuss these results in the framework of Laplace’s theory, with a particular focus on the phase relationships between seismicity, length-of-day variations, and sea-level changes to further elucidate the underlying physical mechanisms. Finally, integrating observations from seismogenic regions, we propose a possible trigger mechanism based on solid Earth–hydrosphere interactions, emphasizing the key role of water-rock interactions in modulating earthquake occurrence. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-876da672eb054b57a73a27af1a7d3a5d |
| institution | Matheson Library |
| issn | 2296-6463 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Earth Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-876da672eb054b57a73a27af1a7d3a5d2025-07-02T12:43:40ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Earth Science2296-64632025-07-011310.3389/feart.2025.15876501587650On a planetary forcing of global seismicityStéphanie Dumont0Jean de Bremond d’Ars1Jean-Baptiste Boulé2Vincent Courtillot3Marc Gèze4Dominique Gibert5Vladimir Kossobokov6Jean-Louis Le Mouël7Fernando Lopes8Maria C. Neves9Graça Silveira10Graça Silveira11Simona Petrosino12Pierpaolo Zuddas13IDL - Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, PortugalUniversity Rennes, CNRS, Géosciences Rennes, UMR 6118, Rennes, FranceMuséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, CNRS UMR 7196, INSERM U1154, Sorbonne Université, Paris, FranceAcadémie des Sciences de Paris, Paris, FranceMuséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, CEMIM, Sorbonne Université, Paris, FranceLGL-TPE, University Lyon, University Lyon 1, ENSL, CNRS, UMR, Villeurbanne, FranceInstitute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, RussiaAcadémie des Sciences de Paris, Paris, FranceMuséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, CNRS UMR 7196, INSERM U1154, Sorbonne Université, Paris, FranceFCT, Campus de Gambelas, Universidade do Algarve, Faro, PortugalIDL - Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, PortugalInstituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa (ISEL), Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal0Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Napoli—Osservatorio Vesuviano, Naples, Italy1Sorbonne Université, CNRS, METIS, Paris, FranceWe have explored the temporal variability of the seismicity at global scale over the last 124 years, as well as its potential drivers. To achieve this, we constructed and analyzed an averaged global seismicity curve for earthquakes of magnitude equal or greater than 6.0 since 1900. Using Singular Spectrum Analysis, we decomposed this curve and compared the extracted pseudo-cycles with two global geophysical parameters associated with Earth’s tides: length-of-day variations and sea-level changes. Our results reveal that these three geophysical signal curves can be reconstructed up to ∼90% by the sum of up to seven periodic components ranging from 1 to ∼60 years, largely aligned with planetary ephemerides. We discuss these results in the framework of Laplace’s theory, with a particular focus on the phase relationships between seismicity, length-of-day variations, and sea-level changes to further elucidate the underlying physical mechanisms. Finally, integrating observations from seismogenic regions, we propose a possible trigger mechanism based on solid Earth–hydrosphere interactions, emphasizing the key role of water-rock interactions in modulating earthquake occurrence.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2025.1587650/fullworldwide seismicitysea-level variationslength of dayperiodic behaviorwater-rock interactionsglobal-scale processes |
| spellingShingle | Stéphanie Dumont Jean de Bremond d’Ars Jean-Baptiste Boulé Vincent Courtillot Marc Gèze Dominique Gibert Vladimir Kossobokov Jean-Louis Le Mouël Fernando Lopes Maria C. Neves Graça Silveira Graça Silveira Simona Petrosino Pierpaolo Zuddas On a planetary forcing of global seismicity Frontiers in Earth Science worldwide seismicity sea-level variations length of day periodic behavior water-rock interactions global-scale processes |
| title | On a planetary forcing of global seismicity |
| title_full | On a planetary forcing of global seismicity |
| title_fullStr | On a planetary forcing of global seismicity |
| title_full_unstemmed | On a planetary forcing of global seismicity |
| title_short | On a planetary forcing of global seismicity |
| title_sort | on a planetary forcing of global seismicity |
| topic | worldwide seismicity sea-level variations length of day periodic behavior water-rock interactions global-scale processes |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2025.1587650/full |
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