Inferring the timing of individual mobility decisions from accommodation reservation data during the COVID-19 outbreak
Understanding the changes in human mobility in response to outbreaks is important for controlling emerging infectious disease outbreaks. This requires an understanding of the mechanism of human behavioural response as well as the timing of decisions for future mobility. However, most human mobility...
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The Royal Society
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Royal Society Open Science |
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| Online Access: | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.250554 |
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| author | Koichi Ito Shunsuke Kanemitsu Ryusuke Kimura Ryosuke Omori |
| author_facet | Koichi Ito Shunsuke Kanemitsu Ryusuke Kimura Ryosuke Omori |
| author_sort | Koichi Ito |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Understanding the changes in human mobility in response to outbreaks is important for controlling emerging infectious disease outbreaks. This requires an understanding of the mechanism of human behavioural response as well as the timing of decisions for future mobility. However, most human mobility data only record the executed mobility that results from decision-making, and not the timing of decisions. In this study, we used accommodation reservation data to extract the decision-making process in response to the changing epidemic situation and compared it with data on executed mobility, ‘stay time’ in workplaces and stay time in places other than home or workplaces to clarify when people decide on their mobility. We confirmed that the decision-making process estimated from accommodation reservation data can accurately predict human mobility. The decision-making process estimated from accommodation reservation data was more strongly associated with stay time in places other than home or workplaces than stay time in workplaces. Furthermore, the comparison between the estimated decision-making process and mobility data quantitatively revealed that mobility was the result of integrating two types of decisions made in recent weeks (within two and five weeks for mobility to workplaces and places other than home or workplaces, respectively) and previous weeks. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-7e43d1d2bc214c879acf17dde04423fe |
| institution | Matheson Library |
| issn | 2054-5703 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | The Royal Society |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Royal Society Open Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-7e43d1d2bc214c879acf17dde04423fe2025-07-29T23:05:08ZengThe Royal SocietyRoyal Society Open Science2054-57032025-07-0112710.1098/rsos.250554Inferring the timing of individual mobility decisions from accommodation reservation data during the COVID-19 outbreakKoichi Ito0Shunsuke Kanemitsu1Ryusuke Kimura2Ryosuke Omori3Faculty of Science and Engineering, Doshisha University, Kyotanabe, Kyoto 610-0394, JapanData Solution Unit 2 (Marriage & Family/Automobile Business/Travel), Data Management & Planning Office, Product Development Management Office, Recruit Co., Ltd, Tokyo 100-6640, JapanSaaS Data Solution Unit, Data Management & Planning Office, Product Development Management Office, Recruit Co., Ltd, Tokyo, 100-6640, JapanDivision of Bioinformatics, International Institute for Zoonosis Control, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Hokkaido 001-0020, JapanUnderstanding the changes in human mobility in response to outbreaks is important for controlling emerging infectious disease outbreaks. This requires an understanding of the mechanism of human behavioural response as well as the timing of decisions for future mobility. However, most human mobility data only record the executed mobility that results from decision-making, and not the timing of decisions. In this study, we used accommodation reservation data to extract the decision-making process in response to the changing epidemic situation and compared it with data on executed mobility, ‘stay time’ in workplaces and stay time in places other than home or workplaces to clarify when people decide on their mobility. We confirmed that the decision-making process estimated from accommodation reservation data can accurately predict human mobility. The decision-making process estimated from accommodation reservation data was more strongly associated with stay time in places other than home or workplaces than stay time in workplaces. Furthermore, the comparison between the estimated decision-making process and mobility data quantitatively revealed that mobility was the result of integrating two types of decisions made in recent weeks (within two and five weeks for mobility to workplaces and places other than home or workplaces, respectively) and previous weeks.https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.250554COVID-19risk reduction behavioursdata interpretationsoutbreakshuman mobilitypopulation dynamics |
| spellingShingle | Koichi Ito Shunsuke Kanemitsu Ryusuke Kimura Ryosuke Omori Inferring the timing of individual mobility decisions from accommodation reservation data during the COVID-19 outbreak Royal Society Open Science COVID-19 risk reduction behaviours data interpretations outbreaks human mobility population dynamics |
| title | Inferring the timing of individual mobility decisions from accommodation reservation data during the COVID-19 outbreak |
| title_full | Inferring the timing of individual mobility decisions from accommodation reservation data during the COVID-19 outbreak |
| title_fullStr | Inferring the timing of individual mobility decisions from accommodation reservation data during the COVID-19 outbreak |
| title_full_unstemmed | Inferring the timing of individual mobility decisions from accommodation reservation data during the COVID-19 outbreak |
| title_short | Inferring the timing of individual mobility decisions from accommodation reservation data during the COVID-19 outbreak |
| title_sort | inferring the timing of individual mobility decisions from accommodation reservation data during the covid 19 outbreak |
| topic | COVID-19 risk reduction behaviours data interpretations outbreaks human mobility population dynamics |
| url | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.250554 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT koichiito inferringthetimingofindividualmobilitydecisionsfromaccommodationreservationdataduringthecovid19outbreak AT shunsukekanemitsu inferringthetimingofindividualmobilitydecisionsfromaccommodationreservationdataduringthecovid19outbreak AT ryusukekimura inferringthetimingofindividualmobilitydecisionsfromaccommodationreservationdataduringthecovid19outbreak AT ryosukeomori inferringthetimingofindividualmobilitydecisionsfromaccommodationreservationdataduringthecovid19outbreak |