Wild Vanilla and pollinators at risk of spatial mismatch in a changing climate
Climate change is expected to drive substantial shifts in species’ geographic ranges. Species-specific responses of interacting species, such as plants and their pollinators, may lead to a spatial mismatch in their future distributions, disrupting these interspecific interactions. The crop wild rela...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2025-07-01
|
| Series: | Frontiers in Plant Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2025.1585540/full |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1839641663940591616 |
|---|---|
| author | Charlotte Watteyn Charlotte Watteyn Charlotte Watteyn Charlotte Watteyn Tobias Fremout Adam P. Karremans Koenraad Van Meerbeek Koenraad Van Meerbeek Steven B. Janssens Steven B. Janssens Steven B. Janssens Sander de Backer Monika M. Lipińska Monika M. Lipińska Monika M. Lipińska Bart Muys Bart Muys |
| author_facet | Charlotte Watteyn Charlotte Watteyn Charlotte Watteyn Charlotte Watteyn Tobias Fremout Adam P. Karremans Koenraad Van Meerbeek Koenraad Van Meerbeek Steven B. Janssens Steven B. Janssens Steven B. Janssens Sander de Backer Monika M. Lipińska Monika M. Lipińska Monika M. Lipińska Bart Muys Bart Muys |
| author_sort | Charlotte Watteyn |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change is expected to drive substantial shifts in species’ geographic ranges. Species-specific responses of interacting species, such as plants and their pollinators, may lead to a spatial mismatch in their future distributions, disrupting these interspecific interactions. The crop wild relatives (CWRs) of the tropical cash crop vanilla hold valuable genetic resources for use in crop breeding, but their persistence is dependent on the presence of their pollinators, and at risk due to several anthropogenic pressures including climate change. To contribute to the safeguarding of this wild Vanilla gene pool, the present study aims at better understanding the effects of climate change on Vanilla species and their pollinators, and to identify potential spatial mismatches between both. Focusing on the Neotropical realm, we used MaxEnt species distribution models (SDMs) to predict potential changes in the range overlap between Vanilla and their pollinators by 2050 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 climate change scenarios. We were able to compile enough occurrence records to generate SDMs for 11 Neotropical Vanilla CWRs, of which data on pollinator identity was available for four animal-pollinated species. Our models showed varying results among Vanilla species, with some predicted to undergo a net contraction (-1% to -53%) and others predicted to experience a net expansion (+11 to +140%), while the area of suitable habitat for all pollinators was predicted to decline (-7% to -71%). Our models predict a decline in range overlap between animal-pollinated Vanilla species and their pollinators under climate change, and this spatial mismatch was more pronounced for species reliant on a single known pollinator (-60% to -90%). Furthermore, the proportion of overlapping ranges located within protected areas is predicted to shrink for all species if no action is taken. Based on these findings, we propose priority areas for in situ and ex situ conservation to safeguard Vanilla’s genetic resources. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-7b8b8470a5c4410fb2f59e69dbb6c4b1 |
| institution | Matheson Library |
| issn | 1664-462X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Plant Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-7b8b8470a5c4410fb2f59e69dbb6c4b12025-07-03T05:26:40ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Plant Science1664-462X2025-07-011610.3389/fpls.2025.15855401585540Wild Vanilla and pollinators at risk of spatial mismatch in a changing climateCharlotte Watteyn0Charlotte Watteyn1Charlotte Watteyn2Charlotte Watteyn3Tobias Fremout4Adam P. Karremans5Koenraad Van Meerbeek6Koenraad Van Meerbeek7Steven B. Janssens8Steven B. Janssens9Steven B. Janssens10Sander de Backer11Monika M. Lipińska12Monika M. Lipińska13Monika M. Lipińska14Bart Muys15Bart Muys16Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Leuven, BelgiumCentro de Investigación Jardín Botánico Lankester, Universidad de Costa Rica, Cartago, Costa RicaMeise Botanic Garden, Meise, BelgiumKU Leuven Plant Institute, KU Leuven, Leuven, BelgiumBioversity International, Lima, PeruCentro de Investigación Jardín Botánico Lankester, Universidad de Costa Rica, Cartago, Costa RicaDepartment of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Leuven, BelgiumKU Leuven Plant Institute, KU Leuven, Leuven, BelgiumMeise Botanic Garden, Meise, BelgiumKU Leuven Plant Institute, KU Leuven, Leuven, BelgiumDepartment of Biology, KU Leuven, Leuven, BelgiumMeise Botanic Garden, Meise, BelgiumCentro de Investigación Jardín Botánico Lankester, Universidad de Costa Rica, Cartago, Costa RicaDepartment of Plant Taxonomy and Nature Conservation, Faculty of Biology, University of Gdańsk, Gdańsk, PolandInstituto de Investigación en Ciencias Naturales y Tecnología (Iarna), Universidad Rafael Landívar, Ciudad de Guatemala, GuatemalaDepartment of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Leuven, BelgiumKU Leuven Plant Institute, KU Leuven, Leuven, BelgiumClimate change is expected to drive substantial shifts in species’ geographic ranges. Species-specific responses of interacting species, such as plants and their pollinators, may lead to a spatial mismatch in their future distributions, disrupting these interspecific interactions. The crop wild relatives (CWRs) of the tropical cash crop vanilla hold valuable genetic resources for use in crop breeding, but their persistence is dependent on the presence of their pollinators, and at risk due to several anthropogenic pressures including climate change. To contribute to the safeguarding of this wild Vanilla gene pool, the present study aims at better understanding the effects of climate change on Vanilla species and their pollinators, and to identify potential spatial mismatches between both. Focusing on the Neotropical realm, we used MaxEnt species distribution models (SDMs) to predict potential changes in the range overlap between Vanilla and their pollinators by 2050 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 climate change scenarios. We were able to compile enough occurrence records to generate SDMs for 11 Neotropical Vanilla CWRs, of which data on pollinator identity was available for four animal-pollinated species. Our models showed varying results among Vanilla species, with some predicted to undergo a net contraction (-1% to -53%) and others predicted to experience a net expansion (+11 to +140%), while the area of suitable habitat for all pollinators was predicted to decline (-7% to -71%). Our models predict a decline in range overlap between animal-pollinated Vanilla species and their pollinators under climate change, and this spatial mismatch was more pronounced for species reliant on a single known pollinator (-60% to -90%). Furthermore, the proportion of overlapping ranges located within protected areas is predicted to shrink for all species if no action is taken. Based on these findings, we propose priority areas for in situ and ex situ conservation to safeguard Vanilla’s genetic resources.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2025.1585540/fullclimate changeEuglossiniex situ conservationin situ conservationOrchidaceaeplant-pollinator decoupling |
| spellingShingle | Charlotte Watteyn Charlotte Watteyn Charlotte Watteyn Charlotte Watteyn Tobias Fremout Adam P. Karremans Koenraad Van Meerbeek Koenraad Van Meerbeek Steven B. Janssens Steven B. Janssens Steven B. Janssens Sander de Backer Monika M. Lipińska Monika M. Lipińska Monika M. Lipińska Bart Muys Bart Muys Wild Vanilla and pollinators at risk of spatial mismatch in a changing climate Frontiers in Plant Science climate change Euglossini ex situ conservation in situ conservation Orchidaceae plant-pollinator decoupling |
| title | Wild Vanilla and pollinators at risk of spatial mismatch in a changing climate |
| title_full | Wild Vanilla and pollinators at risk of spatial mismatch in a changing climate |
| title_fullStr | Wild Vanilla and pollinators at risk of spatial mismatch in a changing climate |
| title_full_unstemmed | Wild Vanilla and pollinators at risk of spatial mismatch in a changing climate |
| title_short | Wild Vanilla and pollinators at risk of spatial mismatch in a changing climate |
| title_sort | wild vanilla and pollinators at risk of spatial mismatch in a changing climate |
| topic | climate change Euglossini ex situ conservation in situ conservation Orchidaceae plant-pollinator decoupling |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2025.1585540/full |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT charlottewatteyn wildvanillaandpollinatorsatriskofspatialmismatchinachangingclimate AT charlottewatteyn wildvanillaandpollinatorsatriskofspatialmismatchinachangingclimate AT charlottewatteyn wildvanillaandpollinatorsatriskofspatialmismatchinachangingclimate AT charlottewatteyn wildvanillaandpollinatorsatriskofspatialmismatchinachangingclimate AT tobiasfremout wildvanillaandpollinatorsatriskofspatialmismatchinachangingclimate AT adampkarremans wildvanillaandpollinatorsatriskofspatialmismatchinachangingclimate AT koenraadvanmeerbeek wildvanillaandpollinatorsatriskofspatialmismatchinachangingclimate AT koenraadvanmeerbeek wildvanillaandpollinatorsatriskofspatialmismatchinachangingclimate AT stevenbjanssens wildvanillaandpollinatorsatriskofspatialmismatchinachangingclimate AT stevenbjanssens wildvanillaandpollinatorsatriskofspatialmismatchinachangingclimate AT stevenbjanssens wildvanillaandpollinatorsatriskofspatialmismatchinachangingclimate AT sanderdebacker wildvanillaandpollinatorsatriskofspatialmismatchinachangingclimate AT monikamlipinska wildvanillaandpollinatorsatriskofspatialmismatchinachangingclimate AT monikamlipinska wildvanillaandpollinatorsatriskofspatialmismatchinachangingclimate AT monikamlipinska wildvanillaandpollinatorsatriskofspatialmismatchinachangingclimate AT bartmuys wildvanillaandpollinatorsatriskofspatialmismatchinachangingclimate AT bartmuys wildvanillaandpollinatorsatriskofspatialmismatchinachangingclimate |