Birth seasonality, fetal loss and air temperature in the Serbia-north region
The seasonality of births in Serbia shows a pattern in which the largest number of children are born during late summer and early autumn, placing the largest part of conceptions at the transition from one calendar year to another, which is not the case in the Serbia-North region. Taking int...
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| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Serbian Geographical Society
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Glasnik Srpskog Geografskog Društva |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doiserbia.nb.rs/img/doi/0350-3593/2025/0350-35932501475V.pdf |
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| Summary: | The seasonality of births in Serbia shows a pattern in which the largest
number of children are born during late summer and early autumn, placing the
largest part of conceptions at the transition from one calendar year to
another, which is not the case in the Serbia-North region. Taking into
account the seasonality of births, we will try to estimate the distribution
of conceptions on a weekly basis during the period 2015-2020. However, a
special contribution of this paper will be observing of variations in the
number of conceptions and births in parallel with variations in the average
weekly air temperature by administrative districts in the Serbia-North
region. The ratio between the number of conceptions during a calendar week
with days of a certain average air temperature and live births that occur
after 30-42 weeks later represents the degree of reproductive success
indicating the level of fetal losses. Many recent studies indicate that
there is a high correlation between the average weekly air temperature and
clinically unregistered fetal losses that occur in the earliest stages of
pregnancy. This effect is greatest in the first days after conception,
potentially indicating the influence of an increase in air temperature on
the occurrence of a conception error. The paper analyzes the relationship
between changes in the number of days in five temperature ranges and changes
in the number of pregnancies and live births as a positive pregnancy
outcome. The results indicate that temperature extremes reduce the
likelihood of a positive reproductive outcome. The expected increase in air
temperatures and the occurrence of temperature extremes, under the
influence of climate change, could further reduce the level of fertility in
the Serbia-North region due to the specific seasonality of births and the
large number of conceptions that occur during periods of particular
temperature risk. |
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| ISSN: | 0350-3593 2406-078X |