Development and validation of nomograms for predicting prognosis in patients with resectable bladder urothelial carcinoma undergoing radical cystectomy: a multicenter retrospective study
PurposeThis study aimed to construct and validate nomograms for the prediction of overall survival (OS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), and disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with resectable bladder urothelial carcinoma (BUC) after radical cystectomy (RC).MethodsWe retrospectively collected th...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Oncology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2025.1571604/full |
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| author | Junjie Ji Junjie Ji Junjie Ji Zengjin Wen Yu Yao Lei Jiang Qingya Yang Guiming Zhang |
| author_facet | Junjie Ji Junjie Ji Junjie Ji Zengjin Wen Yu Yao Lei Jiang Qingya Yang Guiming Zhang |
| author_sort | Junjie Ji |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | PurposeThis study aimed to construct and validate nomograms for the prediction of overall survival (OS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), and disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with resectable bladder urothelial carcinoma (BUC) after radical cystectomy (RC).MethodsWe retrospectively collected the demographic, pathological, imaging, and laboratory data from patients with BUC who underwent RC. The training cohort included patients from the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University from January 2018 to December 2021, while the test cohort included patients from the same hospital between January 2016 and December 2017, along with patients from Qilu Hospital of Shandong University. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were conducted to identify independent predictors of OS, CSS, and DFS. The performance of the nomograms was evaluated using Harrell’s concordance index (C-index), the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), the corrected AUC following 1,000 bootstrap resamplings with calibration curves, and decision curve analysis in both cohort validations.ResultsA total of 393 patients were included in the training cohort, while 156 patients comprised the test cohort. Multivariate analyses revealed that age, tumor size, lymph node metastasis (LNM), lymphovascular invasion (LVI), urea nitrogen, creatinine, and the albumin/fibrinogen ratio (AFR) were independent predictors for OS. For CSS, the independent predictors were tumor size, LNM, LVI, urea nitrogen, and AFR. LNM and LVI were the independent predictors for DFS. The nomograms for OS and CSS demonstrated high predictive accuracy with robust CC-indexes and ROC curves, along with reliable calibration curves with corrected AUCs and clinical utility in both cohorts. The DFS nomogram also showed high predictive accuracy with stable corrected AUCs in both cohorts.ConclusionWe constructed OS, CSS, and DFS nomograms to predict prognosis in patients with BUC treated with RC. These nomograms exhibited high accuracy, reliability, and clinical utility in predicting outcomes in both cohorts. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-5e9d13a8339b46a9a9ede8e4df973e8d |
| institution | Matheson Library |
| issn | 2234-943X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
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| series | Frontiers in Oncology |
| spelling | doaj-art-5e9d13a8339b46a9a9ede8e4df973e8d2025-07-03T09:49:20ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Oncology2234-943X2025-07-011510.3389/fonc.2025.15716041571604Development and validation of nomograms for predicting prognosis in patients with resectable bladder urothelial carcinoma undergoing radical cystectomy: a multicenter retrospective studyJunjie Ji0Junjie Ji1Junjie Ji2Zengjin Wen3Yu Yao4Lei Jiang5Qingya Yang6Guiming Zhang7Department of Urology, The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, ChinaSchool of Rehabilitation, Capital Medical University, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Urology, China Rehabilitation Research Center, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Thoracic Surgery II, Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Translational Research (Ministry of Education), Peking University Cancer Hospital and Institute, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Urology, The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, ChinaDepartment of Urology, The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, ChinaDepartment of Urology, Qilu Hospital (Qingdao), Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Qingdao, ChinaDepartment of Urology, The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, ChinaPurposeThis study aimed to construct and validate nomograms for the prediction of overall survival (OS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), and disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with resectable bladder urothelial carcinoma (BUC) after radical cystectomy (RC).MethodsWe retrospectively collected the demographic, pathological, imaging, and laboratory data from patients with BUC who underwent RC. The training cohort included patients from the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University from January 2018 to December 2021, while the test cohort included patients from the same hospital between January 2016 and December 2017, along with patients from Qilu Hospital of Shandong University. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were conducted to identify independent predictors of OS, CSS, and DFS. The performance of the nomograms was evaluated using Harrell’s concordance index (C-index), the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), the corrected AUC following 1,000 bootstrap resamplings with calibration curves, and decision curve analysis in both cohort validations.ResultsA total of 393 patients were included in the training cohort, while 156 patients comprised the test cohort. Multivariate analyses revealed that age, tumor size, lymph node metastasis (LNM), lymphovascular invasion (LVI), urea nitrogen, creatinine, and the albumin/fibrinogen ratio (AFR) were independent predictors for OS. For CSS, the independent predictors were tumor size, LNM, LVI, urea nitrogen, and AFR. LNM and LVI were the independent predictors for DFS. The nomograms for OS and CSS demonstrated high predictive accuracy with robust CC-indexes and ROC curves, along with reliable calibration curves with corrected AUCs and clinical utility in both cohorts. The DFS nomogram also showed high predictive accuracy with stable corrected AUCs in both cohorts.ConclusionWe constructed OS, CSS, and DFS nomograms to predict prognosis in patients with BUC treated with RC. These nomograms exhibited high accuracy, reliability, and clinical utility in predicting outcomes in both cohorts.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2025.1571604/fullbladder cancerbladder urothelial carcinomaradical cystectomyprognosisnomogram |
| spellingShingle | Junjie Ji Junjie Ji Junjie Ji Zengjin Wen Yu Yao Lei Jiang Qingya Yang Guiming Zhang Development and validation of nomograms for predicting prognosis in patients with resectable bladder urothelial carcinoma undergoing radical cystectomy: a multicenter retrospective study Frontiers in Oncology bladder cancer bladder urothelial carcinoma radical cystectomy prognosis nomogram |
| title | Development and validation of nomograms for predicting prognosis in patients with resectable bladder urothelial carcinoma undergoing radical cystectomy: a multicenter retrospective study |
| title_full | Development and validation of nomograms for predicting prognosis in patients with resectable bladder urothelial carcinoma undergoing radical cystectomy: a multicenter retrospective study |
| title_fullStr | Development and validation of nomograms for predicting prognosis in patients with resectable bladder urothelial carcinoma undergoing radical cystectomy: a multicenter retrospective study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development and validation of nomograms for predicting prognosis in patients with resectable bladder urothelial carcinoma undergoing radical cystectomy: a multicenter retrospective study |
| title_short | Development and validation of nomograms for predicting prognosis in patients with resectable bladder urothelial carcinoma undergoing radical cystectomy: a multicenter retrospective study |
| title_sort | development and validation of nomograms for predicting prognosis in patients with resectable bladder urothelial carcinoma undergoing radical cystectomy a multicenter retrospective study |
| topic | bladder cancer bladder urothelial carcinoma radical cystectomy prognosis nomogram |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2025.1571604/full |
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