Beyond Circumstantial Evidence on Wildlife–Vehicle Collisions During COVID-19 Lockdown: A Deterministic vs. Probabilistic Multi-Year Analysis from a Mediterranean Island
Decreases in animal mortality due to wildlife–vehicle collisions have been consistently documented as an environmental effect of human mobility restrictions aimed at containing the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, we investigate this phenomenon on the mid-sized Mediterranean island of...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2025-06-01
|
| Series: | Ecologies |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2673-4133/6/2/42 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1839654199336370176 |
|---|---|
| author | Andreas Y. Troumbis Yiannis G. Zevgolis |
| author_facet | Andreas Y. Troumbis Yiannis G. Zevgolis |
| author_sort | Andreas Y. Troumbis |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Decreases in animal mortality due to wildlife–vehicle collisions have been consistently documented as an environmental effect of human mobility restrictions aimed at containing the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, we investigate this phenomenon on the mid-sized Mediterranean island of Lesvos, considering a multi-species group of mammals over a five-year systematic recording of animal casualties. We developed a method to analyze the relationship between actual casualties and risk, drawing inspiration from Markowitz’s theory on multi-asset optimization in economics. Additionally, we treated this phenomenon as a Poisson probabilistic process. Our main finding indicates that the lockdown year diverged markedly in modeled return–risk space, exhibiting a displacement on the order of 10<sup>2</sup> compared to the multi-year baseline—an outcome that reflects structural changes in risk dynamics, not a literal 100-fold decrease in observed counts. This modeled shift is significantly larger compared to published evidence regarding individual species. The results concerning the vulnerability of specific mammals, analyzed as a Poisson process, underscore the importance of singular events that can overshadow the overall systemic nature of the issue. We conclude that a promising strategy for addressing this problem is for conservationists to integrate animal-friendly measures into general human road safety policies. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-57b6a14fe69b48c8a8ab4c75d608cfd7 |
| institution | Matheson Library |
| issn | 2673-4133 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecologies |
| spelling | doaj-art-57b6a14fe69b48c8a8ab4c75d608cfd72025-06-25T13:44:06ZengMDPI AGEcologies2673-41332025-06-01624210.3390/ecologies6020042Beyond Circumstantial Evidence on Wildlife–Vehicle Collisions During COVID-19 Lockdown: A Deterministic vs. Probabilistic Multi-Year Analysis from a Mediterranean IslandAndreas Y. Troumbis0Yiannis G. Zevgolis1Biodiversity Conservation Laboratory, Department of Environment, University of the Aegean, 81132 Mytilene, GreeceBiodiversity Conservation Laboratory, Department of Environment, University of the Aegean, 81132 Mytilene, GreeceDecreases in animal mortality due to wildlife–vehicle collisions have been consistently documented as an environmental effect of human mobility restrictions aimed at containing the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, we investigate this phenomenon on the mid-sized Mediterranean island of Lesvos, considering a multi-species group of mammals over a five-year systematic recording of animal casualties. We developed a method to analyze the relationship between actual casualties and risk, drawing inspiration from Markowitz’s theory on multi-asset optimization in economics. Additionally, we treated this phenomenon as a Poisson probabilistic process. Our main finding indicates that the lockdown year diverged markedly in modeled return–risk space, exhibiting a displacement on the order of 10<sup>2</sup> compared to the multi-year baseline—an outcome that reflects structural changes in risk dynamics, not a literal 100-fold decrease in observed counts. This modeled shift is significantly larger compared to published evidence regarding individual species. The results concerning the vulnerability of specific mammals, analyzed as a Poisson process, underscore the importance of singular events that can overshadow the overall systemic nature of the issue. We conclude that a promising strategy for addressing this problem is for conservationists to integrate animal-friendly measures into general human road safety policies.https://www.mdpi.com/2673-4133/6/2/42casualties–risk relationshipLesvos IslandPoisson processwildlife–vehicle-collision |
| spellingShingle | Andreas Y. Troumbis Yiannis G. Zevgolis Beyond Circumstantial Evidence on Wildlife–Vehicle Collisions During COVID-19 Lockdown: A Deterministic vs. Probabilistic Multi-Year Analysis from a Mediterranean Island Ecologies casualties–risk relationship Lesvos Island Poisson process wildlife–vehicle-collision |
| title | Beyond Circumstantial Evidence on Wildlife–Vehicle Collisions During COVID-19 Lockdown: A Deterministic vs. Probabilistic Multi-Year Analysis from a Mediterranean Island |
| title_full | Beyond Circumstantial Evidence on Wildlife–Vehicle Collisions During COVID-19 Lockdown: A Deterministic vs. Probabilistic Multi-Year Analysis from a Mediterranean Island |
| title_fullStr | Beyond Circumstantial Evidence on Wildlife–Vehicle Collisions During COVID-19 Lockdown: A Deterministic vs. Probabilistic Multi-Year Analysis from a Mediterranean Island |
| title_full_unstemmed | Beyond Circumstantial Evidence on Wildlife–Vehicle Collisions During COVID-19 Lockdown: A Deterministic vs. Probabilistic Multi-Year Analysis from a Mediterranean Island |
| title_short | Beyond Circumstantial Evidence on Wildlife–Vehicle Collisions During COVID-19 Lockdown: A Deterministic vs. Probabilistic Multi-Year Analysis from a Mediterranean Island |
| title_sort | beyond circumstantial evidence on wildlife vehicle collisions during covid 19 lockdown a deterministic vs probabilistic multi year analysis from a mediterranean island |
| topic | casualties–risk relationship Lesvos Island Poisson process wildlife–vehicle-collision |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2673-4133/6/2/42 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT andreasytroumbis beyondcircumstantialevidenceonwildlifevehiclecollisionsduringcovid19lockdownadeterministicvsprobabilisticmultiyearanalysisfromamediterraneanisland AT yiannisgzevgolis beyondcircumstantialevidenceonwildlifevehiclecollisionsduringcovid19lockdownadeterministicvsprobabilisticmultiyearanalysisfromamediterraneanisland |