Evaluating the effects of climate-induced heatwaves on the thermal dynamics and water quality of a deep reservoir in Portugal
Study region: The study was conducted in the Torrão Reservoir, situated in the Tâmega River Basin in northern Portugal. Study focus: This study evaluates the impact of future climate-induced heatwaves on the thermal structure of a deep reservoir using the 2D water quality model, CE-QUAL-W2. Climate...
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Elsevier
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825004264 |
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| author | Manuel Almeida Senlin Zhu Rita M. Cardoso Pedro M.M. Soares Pedro Coelho |
| author_facet | Manuel Almeida Senlin Zhu Rita M. Cardoso Pedro M.M. Soares Pedro Coelho |
| author_sort | Manuel Almeida |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Study region: The study was conducted in the Torrão Reservoir, situated in the Tâmega River Basin in northern Portugal. Study focus: This study evaluates the impact of future climate-induced heatwaves on the thermal structure of a deep reservoir using the 2D water quality model, CE-QUAL-W2. Climate projections for the end of the century were based on four EURO-CORDEX simulations under the RCP 8.5 scenario. A novel, in-depth approach is used to assess the spatial distribution of climate forcing effects across the reservoir's 2D space. New hydrological insights for the region: Heatwaves are projected to increase mean water temperatures (1.7–3.6 °C) and enhance thermal stratification, affecting dissolved oxygen and chlorophyll-a concentrations. The findings highlight the dual impacts of climate change: while long-term trends suppress average phytoplankton biomass, episodic extremes exacerbate water quality risks. The study also underscores the importance of hydrodynamic forcing functions, such as inflow temperature and atmospheric variability, in shaping thermal stratification and circulation patterns. Importantly, heatwaves led to the formation of localized thermal barriers in the upstream region of the reservoir. Additionally, the analysis quantifies thermal inertia, providing insights into reservoirs’ resilience to climate stressors. Overall, the results indicate that as heatwave intensity (quantified by peak air temperature) increases, the response of reservoir water temperature exhibits a progressively larger temporal lag. Specifically, on average, the delay in water temperature response increases by 3.21 days for each unit rise in peak air temperature. The proposed framework can serve as a valuable tool for understanding and predicting the complex interactions between climate change, heatwaves, and reservoir dynamics, enabling the development of targeted management strategies. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2c2949c90bae4a06bb06e8eb6c6dc57c |
| institution | Matheson Library |
| issn | 2214-5818 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| spelling | doaj-art-2c2949c90bae4a06bb06e8eb6c6dc57c2025-07-23T05:24:37ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182025-08-0160102601Evaluating the effects of climate-induced heatwaves on the thermal dynamics and water quality of a deep reservoir in PortugalManuel Almeida0Senlin Zhu1Rita M. Cardoso2Pedro M.M. Soares3Pedro Coelho4MARE - Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre, ARNET - Aquatic Research Network Associate Laboratory, NOVA School of Science and Technology, NOVA University Lisbon, Caparica, Lisbon, Portugal; Corresponding author.College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, ChinaInstituto Dom Luís (IDL), Faculty of Sciences, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, PortugalInstituto Dom Luís (IDL), Faculty of Sciences, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, PortugalMARE - Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre, ARNET - Aquatic Research Network Associate Laboratory, NOVA School of Science and Technology, NOVA University Lisbon, Caparica, Lisbon, PortugalStudy region: The study was conducted in the Torrão Reservoir, situated in the Tâmega River Basin in northern Portugal. Study focus: This study evaluates the impact of future climate-induced heatwaves on the thermal structure of a deep reservoir using the 2D water quality model, CE-QUAL-W2. Climate projections for the end of the century were based on four EURO-CORDEX simulations under the RCP 8.5 scenario. A novel, in-depth approach is used to assess the spatial distribution of climate forcing effects across the reservoir's 2D space. New hydrological insights for the region: Heatwaves are projected to increase mean water temperatures (1.7–3.6 °C) and enhance thermal stratification, affecting dissolved oxygen and chlorophyll-a concentrations. The findings highlight the dual impacts of climate change: while long-term trends suppress average phytoplankton biomass, episodic extremes exacerbate water quality risks. The study also underscores the importance of hydrodynamic forcing functions, such as inflow temperature and atmospheric variability, in shaping thermal stratification and circulation patterns. Importantly, heatwaves led to the formation of localized thermal barriers in the upstream region of the reservoir. Additionally, the analysis quantifies thermal inertia, providing insights into reservoirs’ resilience to climate stressors. Overall, the results indicate that as heatwave intensity (quantified by peak air temperature) increases, the response of reservoir water temperature exhibits a progressively larger temporal lag. Specifically, on average, the delay in water temperature response increases by 3.21 days for each unit rise in peak air temperature. The proposed framework can serve as a valuable tool for understanding and predicting the complex interactions between climate change, heatwaves, and reservoir dynamics, enabling the development of targeted management strategies.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825004264HeatwaveReservoirWater quality modelThermal structureClimate change |
| spellingShingle | Manuel Almeida Senlin Zhu Rita M. Cardoso Pedro M.M. Soares Pedro Coelho Evaluating the effects of climate-induced heatwaves on the thermal dynamics and water quality of a deep reservoir in Portugal Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Heatwave Reservoir Water quality model Thermal structure Climate change |
| title | Evaluating the effects of climate-induced heatwaves on the thermal dynamics and water quality of a deep reservoir in Portugal |
| title_full | Evaluating the effects of climate-induced heatwaves on the thermal dynamics and water quality of a deep reservoir in Portugal |
| title_fullStr | Evaluating the effects of climate-induced heatwaves on the thermal dynamics and water quality of a deep reservoir in Portugal |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluating the effects of climate-induced heatwaves on the thermal dynamics and water quality of a deep reservoir in Portugal |
| title_short | Evaluating the effects of climate-induced heatwaves on the thermal dynamics and water quality of a deep reservoir in Portugal |
| title_sort | evaluating the effects of climate induced heatwaves on the thermal dynamics and water quality of a deep reservoir in portugal |
| topic | Heatwave Reservoir Water quality model Thermal structure Climate change |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825004264 |
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