Scenario Modelling for Reproducing Investment Potential of Institutional Sectors in the Regions of the Siberian Federal District
The authors analyze the trends and patterns for reproducing investment potential of institutional sectors. This is relevant for the economic and financial security of territorial systems. The aim of the study is to design a scenario model for reproducing investment potential of institutional sectors...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Russian |
| Published: |
Government of the Russian Federation, Financial University
2020-12-01
|
| Series: | Финансы: теория и практика |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/1089 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1839575143390642176 |
|---|---|
| author | I. V. Naumov A. V. Trynov A. O. Safonov |
| author_facet | I. V. Naumov A. V. Trynov A. O. Safonov |
| author_sort | I. V. Naumov |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The authors analyze the trends and patterns for reproducing investment potential of institutional sectors. This is relevant for the economic and financial security of territorial systems. The aim of the study is to design a scenario model for reproducing investment potential of institutional sectors at the regional level. This model suggests systems of predictive scenarios for the reproduction and choosing the optimal one to achieve positive dynamics of the socio-economic development of the regions. When designing the scenario model, the authors used statistical methods for data collecting and processing, regression analysis with the least squares method and ARIMA forecasting. The authors developed an algorithm of scenario modelling for reproducing investment potential of institutional sectors in regional systems. The authors designed a balance model for financial flows between them for various investment instruments. They analysed the regularities of reproducing their investment potential. The paper presents an econometric analysis of financial flows among the sectors considering the impact factors, and the basic scenarios of reproducing their investment potential. The work reveals a stable trend of the outflow of investment resources in institutional sectors accumulated by the banking sector abroad during periods of economic downturns and the development of financial and economic crises. The study suggests a model allowing to determine the most likely forecast scenarios for reproducing investment potential of institutional sectors: inertial, extremely negative (pessimistic) and the most favorable (optimistic). The authors conclude that an increase in volatility in financial markets, a weakening of the domestic currency, and an increase in negative trends in economic development significantly increase the likelihood of a pessimistic scenario. To prevent this, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, must change its policy of regulating the financial and economic activities of the banking sector: to limit the speculative activities of credit institutions that facilitate the withdrawal of financial resources from the domestic economy, to support investment programs for developing of enterprises of the real sector. The prospect for further research is building a system of mechanisms for transiting to the implementation of the optimal scenario of reproducing investment potential of institutional sectors, ensuring the restoration and progressive socio-economic development of territorial systems. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-29b9af03897b4974876b0d9d0f68e11f |
| institution | Matheson Library |
| issn | 2587-5671 2587-7089 |
| language | Russian |
| publishDate | 2020-12-01 |
| publisher | Government of the Russian Federation, Financial University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Финансы: теория и практика |
| spelling | doaj-art-29b9af03897b4974876b0d9d0f68e11f2025-08-04T13:11:08ZrusGovernment of the Russian Federation, Financial UniversityФинансы: теория и практика2587-56712587-70892020-12-01246193710.26794/2587-5671-2020-24-6-19-37812Scenario Modelling for Reproducing Investment Potential of Institutional Sectors in the Regions of the Siberian Federal DistrictI. V. Naumov0A. V. Trynov1A. O. Safonov2Institute of Economics, Ural Branch, Russian Academy of SciencesInstitute of Economics, Ural Branch, Russian Academy of SciencesUral Federal University named after the first President of Russia B.N. YeltsinThe authors analyze the trends and patterns for reproducing investment potential of institutional sectors. This is relevant for the economic and financial security of territorial systems. The aim of the study is to design a scenario model for reproducing investment potential of institutional sectors at the regional level. This model suggests systems of predictive scenarios for the reproduction and choosing the optimal one to achieve positive dynamics of the socio-economic development of the regions. When designing the scenario model, the authors used statistical methods for data collecting and processing, regression analysis with the least squares method and ARIMA forecasting. The authors developed an algorithm of scenario modelling for reproducing investment potential of institutional sectors in regional systems. The authors designed a balance model for financial flows between them for various investment instruments. They analysed the regularities of reproducing their investment potential. The paper presents an econometric analysis of financial flows among the sectors considering the impact factors, and the basic scenarios of reproducing their investment potential. The work reveals a stable trend of the outflow of investment resources in institutional sectors accumulated by the banking sector abroad during periods of economic downturns and the development of financial and economic crises. The study suggests a model allowing to determine the most likely forecast scenarios for reproducing investment potential of institutional sectors: inertial, extremely negative (pessimistic) and the most favorable (optimistic). The authors conclude that an increase in volatility in financial markets, a weakening of the domestic currency, and an increase in negative trends in economic development significantly increase the likelihood of a pessimistic scenario. To prevent this, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, must change its policy of regulating the financial and economic activities of the banking sector: to limit the speculative activities of credit institutions that facilitate the withdrawal of financial resources from the domestic economy, to support investment programs for developing of enterprises of the real sector. The prospect for further research is building a system of mechanisms for transiting to the implementation of the optimal scenario of reproducing investment potential of institutional sectors, ensuring the restoration and progressive socio-economic development of territorial systems.https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/1089reproducing investment potentialinstitutional sectorsbalance modelbanking sector of the economyscenario modellingforecast scenarios |
| spellingShingle | I. V. Naumov A. V. Trynov A. O. Safonov Scenario Modelling for Reproducing Investment Potential of Institutional Sectors in the Regions of the Siberian Federal District Финансы: теория и практика reproducing investment potential institutional sectors balance model banking sector of the economy scenario modelling forecast scenarios |
| title | Scenario Modelling for Reproducing Investment Potential of Institutional Sectors in the Regions of the Siberian Federal District |
| title_full | Scenario Modelling for Reproducing Investment Potential of Institutional Sectors in the Regions of the Siberian Federal District |
| title_fullStr | Scenario Modelling for Reproducing Investment Potential of Institutional Sectors in the Regions of the Siberian Federal District |
| title_full_unstemmed | Scenario Modelling for Reproducing Investment Potential of Institutional Sectors in the Regions of the Siberian Federal District |
| title_short | Scenario Modelling for Reproducing Investment Potential of Institutional Sectors in the Regions of the Siberian Federal District |
| title_sort | scenario modelling for reproducing investment potential of institutional sectors in the regions of the siberian federal district |
| topic | reproducing investment potential institutional sectors balance model banking sector of the economy scenario modelling forecast scenarios |
| url | https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/1089 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ivnaumov scenariomodellingforreproducinginvestmentpotentialofinstitutionalsectorsintheregionsofthesiberianfederaldistrict AT avtrynov scenariomodellingforreproducinginvestmentpotentialofinstitutionalsectorsintheregionsofthesiberianfederaldistrict AT aosafonov scenariomodellingforreproducinginvestmentpotentialofinstitutionalsectorsintheregionsofthesiberianfederaldistrict |