International experience of long-term budget projections: national and subnational levels
The subject of the research is the approaches used in foreign experience in the formation of forecasts of budget parameters for the long term. The study aims to determine the quality criteria for national and regional long-term budget projections based on the best practice of developed countries. In...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Russian |
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Government of the Russian Federation, Financial University
2021-12-01
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| Series: | Финансы: теория и практика |
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| Online Access: | https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/1379 |
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| author | N. E. Barbashova A. N. Komarnitskaya |
| author_facet | N. E. Barbashova A. N. Komarnitskaya |
| author_sort | N. E. Barbashova |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The subject of the research is the approaches used in foreign experience in the formation of forecasts of budget parameters for the long term. The study aims to determine the quality criteria for national and regional long-term budget projections based on the best practice of developed countries. In foreign practice, the question of choosing preferable solutions for long-term budget projections remains open. In Russian studies, some of the above issues are highlighted as of the first decade of the 2000s and require updating, and the foreign regional experience on the use of the longterm budget forecasting lacks detailed analyses. This substantiates the relevance of this study. The novelty consists in highlighting the list of “best practices” in implementing long-term fiscal projection for the national and subnational levels based on the study of the experience of foreign countries. To achieve this goal, the author uses methods of a comparative analysis of international experience in building budget forecasts, system analysis, and analogy. As a result, a list of criteria that meet the good practices of developing long-term budget forecasts has been formed. It is proposed to determine the forecasting horizon within 30–50 years, generate forecasts annually or with a specified frequency if there is a mechanism for updating them. The authors conclude that developing forecasts on a scenario basis using the principle of continuity in relation to the estimates obtained and forecasting methodology, as well as assessing the sensitivity of budget parameters to exogenous factors and budget sustainability are necessary characteristics of longterm budget projections. Prospects for the study consist in studying methodological solutions for forecasting budget parameters and developing tools for the regions of the Russian Federation for calculating indicators of long-term budget projections. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-1a4828dfa44c43f99b3a720c7fbd9eb1 |
| institution | Matheson Library |
| issn | 2587-5671 2587-7089 |
| language | Russian |
| publishDate | 2021-12-01 |
| publisher | Government of the Russian Federation, Financial University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Финансы: теория и практика |
| spelling | doaj-art-1a4828dfa44c43f99b3a720c7fbd9eb12025-08-04T13:11:09ZrusGovernment of the Russian Federation, Financial UniversityФинансы: теория и практика2587-56712587-70892021-12-01256405310.26794/2587-5671-2021-25-6-40-53883International experience of long-term budget projections: national and subnational levelsN. E. Barbashova0A. N. Komarnitskaya1Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public AdministrationRussian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public AdministrationThe subject of the research is the approaches used in foreign experience in the formation of forecasts of budget parameters for the long term. The study aims to determine the quality criteria for national and regional long-term budget projections based on the best practice of developed countries. In foreign practice, the question of choosing preferable solutions for long-term budget projections remains open. In Russian studies, some of the above issues are highlighted as of the first decade of the 2000s and require updating, and the foreign regional experience on the use of the longterm budget forecasting lacks detailed analyses. This substantiates the relevance of this study. The novelty consists in highlighting the list of “best practices” in implementing long-term fiscal projection for the national and subnational levels based on the study of the experience of foreign countries. To achieve this goal, the author uses methods of a comparative analysis of international experience in building budget forecasts, system analysis, and analogy. As a result, a list of criteria that meet the good practices of developing long-term budget forecasts has been formed. It is proposed to determine the forecasting horizon within 30–50 years, generate forecasts annually or with a specified frequency if there is a mechanism for updating them. The authors conclude that developing forecasts on a scenario basis using the principle of continuity in relation to the estimates obtained and forecasting methodology, as well as assessing the sensitivity of budget parameters to exogenous factors and budget sustainability are necessary characteristics of longterm budget projections. Prospects for the study consist in studying methodological solutions for forecasting budget parameters and developing tools for the regions of the Russian Federation for calculating indicators of long-term budget projections.https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/1379 long-term budget projectionsfscal sustainabilityinternational experiencesubnational budgets |
| spellingShingle | N. E. Barbashova A. N. Komarnitskaya International experience of long-term budget projections: national and subnational levels Финансы: теория и практика long-term budget projections fscal sustainability international experience subnational budgets |
| title | International experience of long-term budget projections: national and subnational levels |
| title_full | International experience of long-term budget projections: national and subnational levels |
| title_fullStr | International experience of long-term budget projections: national and subnational levels |
| title_full_unstemmed | International experience of long-term budget projections: national and subnational levels |
| title_short | International experience of long-term budget projections: national and subnational levels |
| title_sort | international experience of long term budget projections national and subnational levels |
| topic | long-term budget projections fscal sustainability international experience subnational budgets |
| url | https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/1379 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT nebarbashova internationalexperienceoflongtermbudgetprojectionsnationalandsubnationallevels AT ankomarnitskaya internationalexperienceoflongtermbudgetprojectionsnationalandsubnationallevels |