Monte Carlo Simulation for Enhancing the Schedule Completion Forecast of Jakarta Central Railway Station Construction Project
Some construction projects in Indonesia have been experiencing frequent major delays, and there is an urgent need to perform a comprehensive schedule forecast to anticipate them. This study aims to enhance the forecast of the project-completion schedule of a major railway construction project in Ind...
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MDPI AG
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Applied Sciences |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/15/13/7464 |
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| author | Mohammad Ichsan Wisnu Isvara Syaeful Karim |
| author_facet | Mohammad Ichsan Wisnu Isvara Syaeful Karim |
| author_sort | Mohammad Ichsan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Some construction projects in Indonesia have been experiencing frequent major delays, and there is an urgent need to perform a comprehensive schedule forecast to anticipate them. This study aims to enhance the forecast of the project-completion schedule of a major railway construction project in Indonesia, with considerations of the identified project risks. Using structured interviews of practitioners and experts, this study has identified key risks in the Phase II Construction project. The @RISK V8.5.1 software was used to run Monte Carlo Simulation to calculate the scheduling forecast more accurately with the PERT method. The results of the scheduling simulation on the inherent key risks that affect key activities in the critical path show that there are additional days due to pre-mitigation during the construction of the project, ranging from 130.81% to 136.25% of the initial contract completion duration to approximately 95.82% to 102.23% of the original contract completion duration. This research provides a way not only to identify and prioritize the risks but also to quantify them to estimate the project completion schedule more up to 95% accuracy using Monte Carlo Simulation, where the model can be used to plan and monitor the risks of future projects. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-16d7df9af2ff4f74b10d8fafff3d6439 |
| institution | Matheson Library |
| issn | 2076-3417 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Applied Sciences |
| spelling | doaj-art-16d7df9af2ff4f74b10d8fafff3d64392025-07-11T14:36:43ZengMDPI AGApplied Sciences2076-34172025-07-011513746410.3390/app15137464Monte Carlo Simulation for Enhancing the Schedule Completion Forecast of Jakarta Central Railway Station Construction ProjectMohammad Ichsan0Wisnu Isvara1Syaeful Karim2Binus Management, BINUS Business School Undergraduate Program, Bina Nusantara University, Jakarta 10270, IndonesiaCivil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Indonesia, Depok 16424, IndonesiaCivil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Indonesia, Depok 16424, IndonesiaSome construction projects in Indonesia have been experiencing frequent major delays, and there is an urgent need to perform a comprehensive schedule forecast to anticipate them. This study aims to enhance the forecast of the project-completion schedule of a major railway construction project in Indonesia, with considerations of the identified project risks. Using structured interviews of practitioners and experts, this study has identified key risks in the Phase II Construction project. The @RISK V8.5.1 software was used to run Monte Carlo Simulation to calculate the scheduling forecast more accurately with the PERT method. The results of the scheduling simulation on the inherent key risks that affect key activities in the critical path show that there are additional days due to pre-mitigation during the construction of the project, ranging from 130.81% to 136.25% of the initial contract completion duration to approximately 95.82% to 102.23% of the original contract completion duration. This research provides a way not only to identify and prioritize the risks but also to quantify them to estimate the project completion schedule more up to 95% accuracy using Monte Carlo Simulation, where the model can be used to plan and monitor the risks of future projects.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/15/13/7464constructionforecastingMonte Carlo simulationproject managementrisk analysisscheduling |
| spellingShingle | Mohammad Ichsan Wisnu Isvara Syaeful Karim Monte Carlo Simulation for Enhancing the Schedule Completion Forecast of Jakarta Central Railway Station Construction Project Applied Sciences construction forecasting Monte Carlo simulation project management risk analysis scheduling |
| title | Monte Carlo Simulation for Enhancing the Schedule Completion Forecast of Jakarta Central Railway Station Construction Project |
| title_full | Monte Carlo Simulation for Enhancing the Schedule Completion Forecast of Jakarta Central Railway Station Construction Project |
| title_fullStr | Monte Carlo Simulation for Enhancing the Schedule Completion Forecast of Jakarta Central Railway Station Construction Project |
| title_full_unstemmed | Monte Carlo Simulation for Enhancing the Schedule Completion Forecast of Jakarta Central Railway Station Construction Project |
| title_short | Monte Carlo Simulation for Enhancing the Schedule Completion Forecast of Jakarta Central Railway Station Construction Project |
| title_sort | monte carlo simulation for enhancing the schedule completion forecast of jakarta central railway station construction project |
| topic | construction forecasting Monte Carlo simulation project management risk analysis scheduling |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/15/13/7464 |
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