STOCHASTIC PRICING MODEL FOR THE REAL ESTATE MARKET: FORMATION OF LOG-NORMAL GENERAL POPULATION
We construct a stochastic model of real estate pricing. The method of the pricing construction is based on a sequential comparison of the supply prices. We proof that under standard assumptions imposed upon the comparison coefficients there exists an unique non-degenerated limit in distribution and...
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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Russian |
| Published: |
Plekhanov Russian University of Economics
2016-08-01
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| Series: | Статистика и экономика |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://statecon.rea.ru/jour/article/view/833 |
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| Summary: | We construct a stochastic model of real estate pricing. The method of the pricing construction is based on a sequential comparison of the supply prices. We proof that under standard assumptions imposed upon the comparison coefficients there exists an unique non-degenerated limit in distribution and this limit has the lognormal law of distribution. The accordance of empirical distributions of prices to thetheoretically obtained log-normal distribution we verify by numerous statistical data of real estate prices from Saint-Petersburg (Russia). For establishing this accordance we essentially apply the efficient and sensitive test of fit of Kolmogorov-Smirnov. Basing on “The Russian Federal Estimation Standard N2”, we conclude that the most probable price, i.e. mode of distribution, is correctly and uniquely defined under the log-normal approximation. Since the mean value of log-normal distribution exceeds the mode - most probable value, it follows that the prices valued by the mathematical expectation are systematically overstated. |
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| ISSN: | 2500-3925 |