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Synthetic Ensemble Forecasts: Operations‐Based Evaluation and Inter‐Model Comparison for Reservoir Systems Across California von Zachary P. Brodeur, William Taylor, Jonathan D. Herman, Scott Steinschneider
Veröffentlicht 2025-06-01

Abstract Synthetic ensemble forecasts are an important tool for testing the robustness of forecast‐informed reservoir operations (FIRO). These forecasts are statistically generated to mimic the skill of hindcasts derived from operational ensemble forecasting systems, but they can be created for time...

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Uncertainty Decomposition to Understand the Influence of Water Systems Model Error in Climate Vulnerability Assessments von Scott Steinschneider, Jonathan D. Herman, John Kucharski, Marriah Abellera, Peter Ruggiero
Veröffentlicht 2023-01-01

Abstract Climate vulnerability assessments rely on water infrastructure system models that imperfectly predict performance metrics under ensembles of future scenarios. There is a benefit to reduced complexity system representations to support these assessments, especially when large ensembles are us...

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